Wenzdaz Wandering Political Thoughts

Breathe deep, I remind myself. So much shitty news roils my complacent sailing. I seethe against Trump and the GOP. My specific seething target is that waste of space, Mike Johnson (R) – Hell. When questioned and pressed for an opinion about Trump suggesting that United States cities should be used as a training ground for the military, Johson squirms like a worm putting put on a hook. The Daily Beast reports via MSN.

Mike Johnson Cornered Over Trump’s Dark Military Threat: ‘Answer the Question!’

“I don’t serve in the Pentagon. I run the House of Representatives, and what we need to be talking about today is real harm that the American people are going to feel because of what Chuck Schumer is doing,” Johnson replied, referencing the government shutdown that Republicans are trying to pin on Democrats.

Yes, squirm, worm, squirm!

Shutdown Blues are sweeping the country. Trump seems pretty unconcerned from what we’ve seen and heard of him. Hell, he’s still getting rich, stealing from the government and scamming folks from the Offal Office. More than that, in his altered reality, he’s probably being cheered and feted with confefve from adoring crowds. Yet, coupled with the government shutdown and the impact that’ll splash over into the economy and the United States’ credit and bond ratings, people should be bracing themselves for rising prices, falling services, failing and businesses, and well, greater yet enshittification. This is the kind of event that’ll sweep over all facets of society. Trump seems oblivious, but that just released ADP jobs report is ugly. UPI feeds us the deets.

ADP report shows 32,000 loss in jobs in September

Oct. 1 (UPI) — Private companies’ payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs in September, according to an ADP report released Wednesday.

The figure represented the largest decline since March 2023. ADP also revised its August numbers — from an increase of 54,000 jobs to a drop of 3,000.

Well, tourism is down. Prices are rising as tariffs kick in and stock built up before Trump’s tariffs were announced dwindle. Beyond that, Trump’s erratic rollout, as consistent as a tide on a stormy beach, confuses business leaders and encourages distrust. Disrupted supply chains and doubtful, worried consumers encourages suspicions about what will happen next. Trust, once broken, isn’t easily regained.

UPI‘s story goes on to note,

The ADP report showed a 28,000 overall drop in service-related jobs, including leisure/hospitality (19,000), professional/business services (13,000), financial activities (9,000), trade/transportation/utilities (7,000) and other services (16,000). There was a rise in education and health services jobs — by 33,000 — and in information jobs — by 3,000.

Meanwhile, MarketWatch reports on deeper, ongoing problems.

The vital signs for the U.S. jobs market were already flickering before the employment report was delayed. Just how bad is it?

The health of the labor market is the single biggest worry of the Fed — even more than a recent rise in inflation. The central bank trimmed a key U.S. interest rate in September in what appears to be the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle to shore up the economy.

Most top Fed officials continue to call the labor market stable. Yet they are increasingly alert to the possibility of “more meaningful and unwelcome increase in the unemployment rate” that could damage the economy, as Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins said Tuesday.

But is the labor market really stable? On the surface, it appears so.

The economy is still adding jobs, if at a glacial pace, and the unemployment rate is quite low historically at 4.3%.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits each week is also surprisingly low, a sign that businesses are mostly avoiding layoffs. Instead, they simply aren’t filling open positions after former employees leave — what economists call “attrition.”

Dig a little deeper, though, and the vital signs for the labor market don’t look nearly so good.

Start with a decline in hiring — the number of new hires per 100 workers. The hiring rate among private-sector businesses fell again in August to 3.5%, matching a five-year low.

The slowdown in hiring is glaring in the most recent U.S. employment reports. The economy added an average of just 25,000 new jobs a month from May through August, marking the weakest four-month stretch since 2010, ignoring the COVID-19-era period.

Not only that, but employment actually fell in June for the first time since 2020.

“Low hiring remains the main driver of weaker labor market,” economists at Citi Research said.

Trump has a proven history of trying to hide from facts and pretend that all is not just great, but the greatest ever. It’s not a deep surprise that the BLS Jobs Report will be delayed. Many, including moi, think Trump’s minions will outright game the numbers to tell a wholly different story. While that might appease his MAGA base and buy time with lockstep Republicans, business people, critical thinkers, and, well, citizens residing in the real world will react with greater distrust and suspicion.

Seasonally, we should be seeing a jump in sales and employment in the United States. It’s the economic fourth quarter. Black Friday is coming, along with the big holiday season that so many love and loathe. The portents are mixed about what will happen. As Paul Krugman likes to remind us, hard data is catching up with soft data.

Time will tell for us but despite his appearances, Trump knows the clock is running. Tick, tock, TACO, tick, tock.