Tag: polls

Monday’s Political Thoughts

Just a bag of trick or treat political offerings. C’mon, man, with December holiday props already up in places, I can be excused for being a few days early for Halloween, can’t I?

I know facts are not in vogue with the Grand Old Trump party. But Schwab sent me an email with links to historic data about political parties and various financial facts since 1961. People claim it’s the economy, so let’s take a look.

  1. The proferred analysis shows that what party is in charge doesn’t affect the stock markets. They keep going up no matter who is charge.
  2. GDP. If you’re worried about the GDP, go Democrat.
    • The annual average growth under Republicans is 2.5%.
    • Democratic presidents saw 3.3% average growth. President Johnson led everyone with 5.5%.
  3. If it’s unemployment rates causing your political itches, go Democrat.
    • “Next, we can look at the unemployment rate, which on average started lower under Republican presidents than under Democrats. However, on average, the unemployment rate rose under Republicans and fell under Democrats.”
  4. Turning attention to the S&P 500, should that be what gives you a rash, the Democratic Party is the one for you.
    • “As shown via the summary rows at the bottom, stocks have performed better in all four cycle years under Democratic presidents.“

As for the sectors, no rhyme and reason is found regarding the political party in charge. Check out the article for the fuller deets.

Annie shared Infidel753’s post about polls and the chance for a blue sweep. Infidel753 cautions that they might not be right, but they point out some trends, logic, and past results for why a blue wave might happen. Check it out.

The brilliant boy, Elon Musk, has the classic Trump grasp of governing. As do Trump supporters. Musk warns about some hardships trying to immediately slash the government’s burden. From what I’ve understood of the Federal budget process, Congress controls it.

“The Constitution makes clear that Congress holds the power of the purse, giving it authority “to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises” and specifying that “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by law.” In short, federal taxing and spending requires legislation that is enacted into law.”

As usual, the Constitution and its strictures mean nothing to the GOT Party. They just want to do what they want to do.

Vote blue. I have.

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Worth Sharing

Sharing the Hopium Good Vibes

I’m pleased to share Annie’s recap of about Simon Rosenberg. “Hopium” Rosenberg’s insights into the 2024 polls — and why they’re wrong — make tremendous sense to me. Read and think about what his take, and you’ll see what I mean. Like these significant points:

Can you explain why? This goes back to the midterm congressional elections in 2022, as I recall?

“Yes. The argument I made then was threefold. One was that the Republicans did something unusual in 2022. Usually when a party loses elections, they run away from the politics that caused them to lose. And Republicans were running toward it. They were becoming ever more MAGA, even though MAGA had lost in 2018 and 2020.

“Second, that Biden was actually a good president, and we’d have a strong case to make. And third, there’s been this huge increase in citizen engagement in the Democratic Party. We’ve been raising crazy amounts of money and have an unprecedented number of volunteers because of the fear of MAGA”.

“We were stronger and better than was the conventional wisdom. The constant mistake everyone’s been making since the spring of 2022 has been the overestimating of their strength and the underestimating of ours. We went into Election Day with there being this huge belief that the Democrats were going to get killed. I believed those three things were going to allow us to do better than people expected in 2022. And I have that basic view now about 2024.“

I mean, shouldn’t we ask why what didn’t work in three previous elections will work in a fourth? No; three strikes; Trump is out.

Cheers

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Thursday’s Theme Music

Mood: Thursdarific

Here we go again, another Thursday. Seems like there’s fifty of these a year.

Today’s Thursday is 04/04/2024, which offers a nice set of four symmetry.

It’s up to 41 F now in Ashlandia. Sunshine graces the east. Snow is scattered on some heights of green trees to the south. A plate whipped potato clouds brood over the western and northern skies. Rain and snow are forecast as possible. Sounds like one of those weather days, right? A high of 50 is being dangled in front of us.

I was a bit frustrated this morning. Connections was so easy. Wordle went well. Suduko was accomplished. But I couldn’t see the Spelling Bee pangram. I put it aside to try again later.

I watched some Jimmy Kimmel talking about politics this morning. Gave me a chortle so I thought I’d paste it up here so you can have a Thursday chortle, too.

Jimmy K summers the same fate as me. I can’t believe polls show DJ Trump leading President Biden in several swing states. Jimmy asks, “How is that possible?” Then he proceeds to present comic reasons about why it shouldn’t be possible.

WARNING: Kimmel shares some footage of Trump speaking. If you’re like me, you’ll need a barf bag on standby.

As for me, I don’t think those polls matter. I put my faith in Simon “Hopium” Rosenberg. He’s the Democratic strategist and analyst who refuted a red wave coming in 2022.

The NYTimes shared an interview with Hopium R. yesterday. Here’s a slice.

The idea of this interview is that, at a time when there is so much fretting in the Democratic world, you are not — and have never been — a bed-wetter. Can you explain why? This goes back to the midterm congressional elections in 2022, as I recall?

Yes. The argument I made then was threefold. One was that the Republicans did something unusual in 2022. Usually when a party loses elections, they run away from the politics that caused them to lose. And Republicans were running toward it. They were becoming ever more MAGA, even though MAGA had lost in 2018 and 2020.

Second, that Biden was actually a good president, and we’d have a strong case to make. And third, there’s been this huge increase in citizen engagement in the Democratic Party. We’ve been raising crazy amounts of money and have an unprecedented number of volunteers because of the fear of MAGA.

Simon R.’s position sums up my own tack. How can the things which didn’t work thrice before work this time? Don’t make no sense. I’ve also read several articles and posts about why the polls are off, and they give me strength.

Today’s music is a Green Day tune. I read about their SF Bay Area concert on SFGate and sought out the video. After enjoying it, The Neurons put it on a play loop in the morning mental music stream (Trademark eclipsed).

This song, “Living in the 20s”, came out this year. As might be anticipated from Green Day, it’s a sardonic take on living in the 2020’s twisted reality of shootings, media, and general craziness. I’ve selected a video so you can sing along. Also, not surprising for Green Day, it’s a fast-paced rocker.

Stay positive, lean forward, sip some coffee. Sorry, that was my reminder to myself. Your reminder goes, stay positive, be strong, lean forward, and Vote Blue.

Okay, here’s the song. Cheers

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Chipgate

A recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that “44 percent of Republicans believe that Bill Gates is plotting to use a mass COVID-19 vaccination campaign as a pretext to implant microchips in billions of people and monitor their movements.”

I said, what? Is this the BillGatesgate? Or is it called chipgate?

I hope it’s not chipgate. Chipgate should be about ridiculous chip flavors being inflicted on the salty, greasy crunchiness that are potato chips. If I want a maple doughnut, I’ll eat a doughnut, not potato chips.

Note to self: get doughnuts.

Other polling results include the Chuck Norris kick to the head that only 26 percent of Republicans were able to “correctly identify” a false and “widely debunked” conspiracy theory. More than 80 percent of Democrats realize that Bill Gates isn’t microchipping people. I pause, though, to think, 20 percent of Democrats believe this crazy idea.

Hmm, I wonder. What’s old Bill up to, chipping us like that? Is he trying to take control of us to stop the spread of crazy ideas about him?

That they’re spreading the idea via social media explodes my head with irony. Many people have cell phones almost glued to their hands. “Where’s my phone?” is a common question people ask themselves. “Why did I put my phone?” “Where did I leave my phone?” “Has anyone seen my phone?” It’s like another child. Or do they not own iPhones and other smartphones with GPS, or cars with navigation systems or net connectivity? Are they using VPN at home, not accepting cookies, and wiping their tracks from the net?

I’ll bet over eighty percent of you said, “What?”

No surprise, then, that madhatters are out there insisting that no mask is a good mask, mocking the maskers for being sheeple. Meanwhile, over half of the social media posts demanding that the U.S. re-opens for business can be traced back to bots. Well, if it worked once, then it’ll work a zillion times, right? Sure; bludgeon people with the same information again and again and they’ll start believing it.

I mean, it worked for invading Iraq as part of the response to 9/11, ‘her emails’ to smear Clinton, show us the birth certificate trumpshit, and the whole, ‘the poor wealthy need a big tax break, cause trickle-down’ nonsense.

Now, excuse me, but a doughnut awaits. I just read that eating a doughnut a day will help you live longer, keep you mentally sharp, and improve your sex life.

Can you believe it?

 

 

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