Tag: statistics

Claims, Facts, and Evidence

More confrontations occurring between US citizens and DHS are in the new again.

ICE agent points gun at Virginia woman who shouted at them in video that conflicts with government’s narrative

The Trump administration repeatedly claims that ICE agents were threatened or attacked — often saying that people ‘weaponized’ their vehicles or that agents feared for their lives. Yet in case after case, video, witnesses, and subsequent legal proceedings have contradicted or undermined those accounts.

So it was with some doubt that I read this DHS claim:

“Our officers are experiencing a more than 1,300% increase in assaults against them, a 3,300% increase in vehicular attacks, and an 8,000% increase in death threats. When faced with dangerous circumstances, DHS law enforcement used their training to protect themselves, their fellow officers, and the public,” the DHS spokesperson said in the statement.

There’s not much context to assess their claim, such as a timeline. Additionally, ICE underwent a huge expansion since Trump came back into office. I want to know, what are the raw numbers, such as the number of assaults based on the number of agents? That would be a more meaningful number.

Secondly, I ponder, how is DHS categorizing and cataloguing ‘threats’. Do they change definitions to make the numbers seem worse, giving them cover to respond more aggressively because ‘their agents are being threatened’? That seems to be the conclusion of an older DHS Inspector General finding.

Third, for me, while ICE aggressively expanded, ICE slashed their training regime. Based on historic trends among military, law enforcement, and other professions, less training often ends up resulting in lower standards and more incidents.

Finally, I think that Trump’s more aggressive deployments to cities and

In short, has the danger to the typical ICE officer actually increased by anything remotely approaching the enormous percentages being cited?

Or is this like the Trump and his administration’s broader pattern of making outlandish claims:

Given Trump’s history of unsupported and misleading quantitative claims, I want to see the underlying data and methodology before accepting the interpretation DHS is placing on those numbers.

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Frida’s Wandering Political Thoughts

It’s good to laugh out loud in the morning. Which I did today, reading of a new Republican plan.

Republicans say states are pulling a fast one on Medicaid

Republicans in Congress see a way around the $880 billion budget shortfall they need to fill to extend President Donald Trump’s tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year.

States aren’t going to like it.

To qualify for federal Medicaid dollars, states must also kick in their own matching funds. GOP lawmakers want to stop states from taxing insurers and health care providers to raise that money, a maneuver that would leave states with a $612 billion hole in their budgets over the next decade.

This is fucking hilarious. The GOTP are amazingly ignorant. Which states depend most on Federal Medicaid? Why, the poorer states. We know this from studies, statistics, and history. For example, West Virginia, one of the nation’s poorest states, are solid Medicaid recipients. Guess what? They won’t have this money.

Guess what else? They solidly voted PINO Trusk into office.

Can you guess what other states fit a similar profile to West Virginia? If you guessed red states, reward yourself.

So here goes the GOTP, chasing some illusion of cleverness and logic in a move that will spite their supporters. It looks like if anyone is pulling a fast one, it’s the GOTP. Wasn’t PINO Trusk just bloviating a few days ago that they wouldn’t touch Medicaid? Oh, but that’s right, what am I thinking? He can’t be trusted. Everyone except his supporters know that.

Brace yourself for the reciprocal wave if they pull this one off.

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Tuesday’s Theme Music

Mood: hyperhappy (could be due to coffee)

It was the best of rains. Falling lightly and fitfully, it wet the land and added a little rise to the streams but caused no issues. That’s the best of rains.

Today is Tuesday, June 18, 2024. Spring continues holding on. Low temps last night dipped into the bottom forties. Now it’s fifty. Sunshine and blue skies reign. A high of 80 F is expected. The wind is whispering, “It’ll be 90 tomorrow.”

My wife was over at the coffee pot, leaning over and whispering to it as the coffee dribble out. Looked like she might’ve been pleading with it. I don’t know. What goes on between a person and their coffee stays between them and their coffee.

Spoke with Dad’s wife last night. We discussed his situation and DNR and Advanced Directives. He has a kidney issue and congestive heart failure. Dialysis is on the table for him but can he survive the procedure is the question. We shall see.

I spoke with him on the phone this morning after putting it off because his wife said he didn’t want to talk. He’s as spirited and congenial as ever. Sounds just as he did twenty year ago.

For fun, I watched Jon Stewart addressing GOP fears about crime. In a coink-dink, I’d checked out FoxNews.com with my morning reading yesterday. I’d already checked out a bunch of ‘liberal’ sites like the NYTimes, WaPo, the HoustonChronicle and others, so I wanted to see what was being presented in the fair and balanced realm called FoxNews.

Well, holy macaroni, that is one dark space. Everything is crashing, burning, flooding, or dying in their world. Actually, that’s pretty much happening in our existence, too, but we don’t see everything and paint it as black as possible and hyper-sensationalized it. Mind boggling.

Anyway, Stewart’s take on the GOP’s take on crime was humorous. Despite what the FBI says about crime being down, the right ‘feels’ like it’s unsafe. As Stewart points out, could it be because rightwing news outlets, pundits, and politicians keep screaming about how dangerous the cities are, despite the statistics? But the most irritating point that Stewarts latches onto, just as most Democrats do, is that the Republicans are screaming about the gun violence even though their inaction against gun controls is what allows guns to flood our cities. Like teasing a cougar and then crying because it mauled you.

For music, The Neurons rolled “Clementine”, also known by some as “Oh My Darling Clementine”, into the morning mental music stream (Trademark edgy). Wikipedia credits the song with being around in 1884, well before my birth. But I’ve heard it in movies and cartoons, and even sang it myself, so I am familiar with it. I challenged The Neurons’ thinking on this song choice. but they stayed mute as a baby’s bottom. Sometime later, they changed the song to “Gimme Some Lovin'” by the Spencer Davis Group from 1966, though again, without revealing why that song was chosen. But I’ll stay with it ‘cuz I like its energy and that organ and the whole song’s upbeat vibe.

Off to the grower’s market. Happens every Tuesday from May to September in Ashlandia, where the produce is fresh and organic. Be strong, stay positive, lean forward, and Vote Blue in 2024. Here’s the music. Oh my darlin’, cheers

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Saturday’s Theme Music

Sunshine came busting in all ablaze at 5:50 AM this Saturday morning, May 15, 2021. Their twin, Sunset, is likely to sneak away at 8:25 this evening. Between, comes weather. Yesterday’s weather iteration brought us sunshine. 83 degrees F. Clouds. Thunder. Lightning. Cold air. Petrichor. Could today do the same? One never knows with weather. Fickle as a drunk, is weather.

Music today comes out of 1981. “Invisible Sun” by The Police struck a mental chord as I thought about COVID-19 statistics. That connection was made when I thought about government charts.

I don’t want to spend my time in hell
Lookin’ at the walls of a prison cell
I don’t ever want to play the part
Of a statistic on a Government chart

h/t to Metrolyrics.com

As for COVID-19 locally, we jumped back on for another ride up and down. 7-day average continues falling but then you get a day that leaps back into the forties and think, “Damn. Thought we were done with that.” Mask wearing is the topic. Is it safe without masks? Many declare they’ll continue wearing them while a large percentage immediately whisked their masks off. We’ll see what’s what in about ten days, I think. That’ll give time to see if people immediately stripping away their masks sends us a new spike of cases.

Stay positive, test negative, wear a mask when needed, and get the vax. Please get the vax. Please.

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