I’m pleased to share Annie’s recap of about Simon Rosenberg. “Hopium” Rosenberg’s insights into the 2024 polls — and why they’re wrong — make tremendous sense to me. Read and think about what his take, and you’ll see what I mean. Like these significant points:
Can you explain why? This goes back to the midterm congressional elections in 2022, as I recall?
“Yes. The argument I made then was threefold. One was that the Republicans did something unusual in 2022. Usually when a party loses elections, they run away from the politics that caused them to lose. And Republicans were running toward it. They were becoming ever more MAGA, even though MAGA had lost in 2018 and 2020.
“Second, that Biden was actually a good president, and we’d have a strong case to make. And third, there’s been this huge increase in citizen engagement in the Democratic Party. We’ve been raising crazy amounts of money and have an unprecedented number of volunteers because of the fear of MAGA”.
“We were stronger and better than was the conventional wisdom. The constant mistake everyone’s been making since the spring of 2022 has been the overestimating of their strength and the underestimating of ours. We went into Election Day with there being this huge belief that the Democrats were going to get killed. I believed those three things were going to allow us to do better than people expected in 2022. And I have that basic view now about 2024.“
I mean, shouldn’t we ask why what didn’t work in three previous elections will work in a fourth? No; three strikes; Trump is out.
Here we go again, another Thursday. Seems like there’s fifty of these a year.
Today’s Thursday is 04/04/2024, which offers a nice set of four symmetry.
It’s up to 41 F now in Ashlandia. Sunshine graces the east. Snow is scattered on some heights of green trees to the south. A plate whipped potato clouds brood over the western and northern skies. Rain and snow are forecast as possible. Sounds like one of those weather days, right? A high of 50 is being dangled in front of us.
I was a bit frustrated this morning. Connections was so easy. Wordle went well. Suduko was accomplished. But I couldn’t see the Spelling Bee pangram. I put it aside to try again later.
I watched some Jimmy Kimmel talking about politics this morning. Gave me a chortle so I thought I’d paste it up here so you can have a Thursday chortle, too.
Jimmy K summers the same fate as me. I can’t believe polls show DJ Trump leading President Biden in several swing states. Jimmy asks, “How is that possible?” Then he proceeds to present comic reasons about why it shouldn’t be possible.
WARNING: Kimmel shares some footage of Trump speaking. If you’re like me, you’ll need a barf bag on standby.
As for me, I don’t think those polls matter. I put my faith in Simon “Hopium” Rosenberg. He’s the Democratic strategist and analyst who refuted a red wave coming in 2022.
The idea of this interview is that, at a time when there is so much fretting in the Democratic world, you are not — and have never been — a bed-wetter. Can you explain why? This goes back to the midterm congressional elections in 2022, as I recall?
Yes. The argument I made then was threefold. One was that the Republicans did something unusual in 2022. Usually when a party loses elections, they run away from the politics that caused them to lose. And Republicans were running toward it. They were becoming ever more MAGA, even though MAGA had lost in 2018 and 2020.
Second, that Biden was actually a good president, and we’d have a strong case to make. And third, there’s been this huge increase in citizen engagement in the Democratic Party. We’ve been raising crazy amounts of money and have an unprecedented number of volunteers because of the fear of MAGA.
Simon R.’s position sums up my own tack. How can the things which didn’t work thrice before work this time? Don’t make no sense. I’ve also read several articles and posts about why the polls are off, and they give me strength.
Today’s music is a Green Day tune. I read about their SF Bay Area concert on SFGate and sought out the video. After enjoying it, The Neurons put it on a play loop in the morning mental music stream (Trademark eclipsed).
This song, “Living in the 20s”, came out this year. As might be anticipated from Green Day, it’s a sardonic take on living in the 2020’s twisted reality of shootings, media, and general craziness. I’ve selected a video so you can sing along. Also, not surprising for Green Day, it’s a fast-paced rocker.
Stay positive, lean forward, sip some coffee. Sorry, that was my reminder to myself. Your reminder goes, stay positive, be strong, lean forward, and Vote Blue.
Michael Seidel, writer 