Tag: labor market

Friday’s Theme Music —

Ashland, southern Oregon — Friday, August 7, 2026.

Sunshine rules but smoke threatens. We’re still safe, knock on wood. Our hearts go out to the many, many, many others — animals, people, land — enduring fires and its impacts.

Hit 102.7 at our house yesterday. Project to hit the same today. It’s 80 F right now.

It’s my anniversary with my wife today. 51 years. Some were rocky but we’re still here, growing old together.

Meanwhile, Trump’s economy, now in its second year, continues flailing. The Jobs Report comes on the heels of the report that showed that the economy’s growth is anemic. What happened to all those manufacturing jobs Trump promised?

Paul Krugman again helped me understand what the July Jobs Report means.

News of the Weak (Labor Market)

“The surprise fall in employment — 23,000 jobs lost, when the consensus forecast was for around 80,000 gained — made headlines. As always, it’s important to realize that monthly jobs numbers are noisy, so you shouldn’t overreact to one report. However, this report also revised data for several earlier months down, so the broader picture of job growth in Trump’s “golden age” is significantly worse than it seemed.“

Krugman also shares this graph from Haver Analytics.

Krugman has often talked about a recession vibe. That comes about when everyone talks about how bad the economy ‘feels’ versus what the data shows. The intersection of gas prices what won’t come down, a terrible job market — as show in the Jobs Report and in jobseekers’ perceptions of what the job market is like — and slow growth is what gives us this vibe.

Trump will probably respond with claims of fake news, or attempt to blame Presidents Obama or Biden, or the Democrats. It’s always someone else’s fault when things go wrong, although he’s always hungry to try to claim glory and success.

Your Trump Quote of the Day:

We need to keep repeating this: Trump doesn’t think about anybody except himself. He doesn’t care about anybody but himself. This economy, Trump’s growing wealth, and Trump’s war with Iran is what you get when you vote for Trump and the GOP that enables him.

“Beds Are Burning” are in my morning mental music stream again. This is a 1987 Midnight Oil song. The Australian group’s song is in there because there’s been so — much — fire — this year, around the world. Record disasters. With Trump’s reactive policies, this will get worse. A super El Nino is already forecast for this coming winter in the northern hemisphere. With fires burning so much of the woods and vegetation and a wet super El Nino in the works, the potential for devastating flooding is enormous.

The other reason that “Beds Are Burning” is today’s song is because of the Trump economy. It’s also burning; more money is being poured into the Defense budget and weapons. But Trump and Hegseth are burning through them. Meanwhile, Trump is trying to fund battleships and Arctic ships. It’s surreal as hell. The economy and world is burning, and he’s wasting money not on helping the people, but on building armies to attack others.

I hope you have a safe and healthy day, and it precedes a long string of such days for you.

Cheers

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The Bottom Line for Trump

For Trump, 2026 mid-terms are coming fast. Reminders are coming, too: of what he promised, the promises he broke, and the failures littering his promises. Here’s one person’s reflections on Trump’s state of the mid-terms worth reading.

Election 2026 #2

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Wednesday’s Theme Music – Trump Circles

Ashland, Southern Oregon — Wednesday, April 29, 2026.

Sunshine and blue sky rule the valley with a 47 degree temperature and a high of 72 F possible this afternoon.

I read a Paul Krugman post this morning. In “The Oil Squeeze Tightens”, Krugman asks, “How long will it take before Trump accepts the reality that he doesn’t have the cards, that in the end his Iran venture will be resolved in a way that leaves Iran stronger and America weaker than before the war?”

Krugman concludes that Trump is clearly dissociating. I feel the same. Trump has become strangely quiet. Is it because of his health? I think it’s that failures are stacking for him. The usual tried and true schemes aren’t working.

Regardless of whether the assassination attempt at the WHCD last week was staged or real, Trump probably expected a bounce from that. He got none. It didn’t help his cause that he immediately pivoted to “Build the ballroom! Security!” It was such a non-sequitur that everyone immediately pounced on the flawed logic.

Trump expected his war with Iran to be over. Instead, more and more are suggesting the US lost that war. It’s at a stalemate, which aren’t good optics for what’s supposed to be a world superpower.

Prices are going up. I don’t think Trump cares about prices for oil, gas, and food, except as it affects his popularity. Nor does he care that he promised to lower them on day one. He lies about prices as much as he lies about losing the 2020 election. His lies are losing their power. Too many are experiencing the real impact of high prices.

Trump probably wants to attack another nation but with Iran going poorly, he’s probably being warned not to. Likewise, he probably wants to escalate on attacks on Iran but somebody with more sense is holding him back.

Meanwhile, summer travel is coming, the war goes on, and Trump’s popularity declines. Beyond all of that, the Epstein files still shadow everything Trump does.

Everything Trump is doing seems flaccid and limp. In his latest Operation Epic LOOK — SQUIRREL! effort, it’s announced his face and signature will be on passports. The usual rejection chorus rang out, but overall, the effort has fallen flat. It’s same old, same old, Trump wants to be idolized, the GOP is supporting it, but it does nothing for anyone but Trump.

Operation Epic LOOK — SQUIRREL! is in danger of becoming Operation Epic Dead Squirrel.

Today’s music in my morning mental music stream riffs off that trend. “Face to the Floor” by Chevelle contain these lines:

Well, caused by their own
And by default
Time to vamanos

Well course now the cracks
Should we intervene?

It brings a chortle out. The 2011 song is probably too alt metal for many but its heavy sound fits my morning mood.

May this Wednesday see you through to a brighter future.

Cheers

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Friday’s Theme Music – Tariffs & Travel

Ashland, Oregon — Friday, April 3, 20226.

33 F when I got up but sunshine was clearing the mountains and trees, lighting up cloudless blue sky. Today’s high will be 71.

With no news from home about Mom, I turned to the net for updates on the world. The US economy added 178k jobs in March. It surprised economists, and it surprised me. Economists warned that the war in Iran could cause problems, because it’s driving up costs throughout the supply chain.

Higher gas prices in the US will also mean less discretionary funding, which could be especially troubling as the US heads into May and the first of the big US travel holidays. Air travel could be harder as airlines such as United cut back flights to deal with increased fuel costs.

The economic is taking another hit from a sharp rise in fertilizer prices, affecting farmers which were already struggling with tariffs, broken trade agreements, and weather issues. Those challenges could result in lower yields and higher food prices at the store.

Not satisfied with high gas, diesel, and oil prices, Donald Trump declared tariffs on prescriptions drugs. Not immediately effective, they come with an opportunity for companies to agree to build facilities in the US to avoid the tariffs.

Today’s song comes from Papi and I stepping out onto the back patio. The gingerboy was already out there, grooming and sunning. His satisfied demeanor invited me to join him. I was still thinking about my dreams at that point. As I lifted my face up to the sun, the opening lyrics of “Kashmir” entered the morning mental music stream: “Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face.”

Here’s to you and a hope that peace and grace find and carries you, today and every day.

Cheers

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