Tag: investing

Saturda’s Wandering Political Thoughts

Some things catching my attention in the week’s news…

I enjoy Ali’s regular offering, Peace & Justice History. Posted every day on Scottie’s Playground, the post provides a high-level recap of the day in history in the realm of peace, law, and justice. I like it as a reminder of the history which has gone before. While there is sometimes a sinking sensation that history is part of a wash cycle, and we’re going through the spin and rinse once again, reading about others stands against war and for justice and human dignity can inspire and fuel my need for optimism.

Infidel753 provided a good overview of the Bond market and the huge implications for the U.S. when our bonds fall out of favor. As several have suggested, the bond market drop probably caused the pause in Trump’s wacky tariff scheme.

“The sale of Treasury bonds is how the US government borrows money.  A bond’s value at maturity is fixed; its initial sale price is lower and is determined by supply and demand, with the difference between sale price and maturity value being the interest paid by the government to the investor.  For example, if a bond is worth $100 at maturity, and you buy it for $95, then the $5 difference is the interest you get on the investment, effectively paid to you by the government.  If you are less confident that the bond is a good investment, and you pay only $90, then your return is $10 when the bond matures, and the government is having to pay twice as much interest to borrow the money from you.  In practice, the sale price of Treasury bonds is set by supply and demand and reflects investors’ collective level of confidence in the US economy at any given moment.“

“The reason this matters for the future of Trump’s befuddled trade and foreign policy is that huge quantities of US bonds are owned by foreign governments.  Japan holds over a trillion dollars worth of them, China holds $760 billion, the UK holds $720 billion, Canada holds $380 billion, and many others also hold substantial amounts.  Even by the standards of the US federal budget, these are very large amounts of money.  And these governments have now learned that turmoil in the bond market can get Trump to back down even when nothing else can.“

Some hope was found that the Roberts Court finally, finally, took a stronger stance against the Trump Regime’s mass deportation scheme, the one that pretends that due process has no place in the U.S. no matter what the Constitution and legal precedence says. Jennifer Rubin at The Contrarian gave a concise summary of the latest ruling. Now we all wait to see what happens next. I haven’t perused the news yet, but something else may have already happened. Whatever else, the Trump Regime is an evil and diabolical machine in its pursuit of unlawfully getting people out of the country.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin is coping with lead paint in its schools. The Biden administration was working with them to help them out of this mess. Isn’t working for the common welfare one reason for the Federal government’s existence? But under the Trump Regime, the CDC experts who were going to help Milwaukee have been fired. And, the Trump Regime told them that it’s declining their request for help. I’m sure that Milwaukee citizens are probably wondering, why the fuck are we paying taxes, then. I know that would be my reaction. Not sure how this fits, but Wisconsin was a swing state that went for Trump while Milwaukee went for Harris.

A confusing piece was in The Hill. Trump on egg costs: ‘If anything, the prices are getting too low’. It was a real head-scratching read.

‘President Trump weighed in on the cost of eggs around the country, claiming Friday at the White House that the prices are “getting too low.”

‘Trump praised Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins for doing a “great” job and then asserted that egg prices are “down 87 percent, but nobody talks about that.”’  

“Bullshit,” my wife said. “I just bought eggs. They’re not down ’87 percent’. If that’s right, why are they still so expensive in Oregon?”

Yes, it’s something else to ponder.

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Thirstda’s Wandering Political Thoughts

It’s time to check the economy’s barometer. Dollar Tree is selling off Family Dollar after acquiring it ten years ago. Lack of synergies between the two. I admit, I confuse the two stores. They’re interchangeable in my mind. Anyway, you would think that they would have noticed the lack of synergies back when DT was thinking about buying FT. I guess that’s business.

What really struck me about the move were these insights from Dollar Tree Chief Executive Mike Creedon, with my emphasis added in bold:

With regard to consumer spending, Creedon said that Dollar Tree, like other retailers, is seeing middle-income shoppers focus more on value. “At the same time, we are seeing stronger demand from higher-income customers who increasingly see Dollar Tree as a cost-effective source for an expanding range of products,” he said during the conference call.sales

“We believe it doesn’t matter how much money you make. Everybody is hurting right now,” he said.

‘Everybody is hurting right now.’ That’s a knee slapper. I don’t think the Trusk Regime’s billionaire cabinet and their friends are hurting at all. But maybe that’s just poor, poor, cynical me. More critically, it seems that more middle class is shopping at the Dollar Tree. That’s a strong sign for the future…not.

But come on, how can we be hurting in Donald Trump’s economy? He’s making all those moves to save the government money. Well, okay, that DOGE stuff didn’t save much money. It instead destablised the government, outraged citizens, scared Republican senators and reps into hiding, caused confusion and triggered alarm, and sent the stock market down. But he added those tariffs…and took them away…and added them again…causing trade partners to retaliate. Which, yeah, hurt farmers, damaged overseas liquor sales, and has put a crimp in economic forecasts. Retailers and manufacturers have responded with layoffs and slashed their sales forecasts.

Naturally, shoppers were affected. US consumer confidence tumbles for the 4th straight month as future expectations hit a 12-year low.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9. Analysts were expecting a decline to a reading of 94.5, according to a survey by FactSet.

The Conference Board’s report Tuesday said that the measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business and the job market fell 9.6 points to 65.2.

It is the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80, which the Conference Board says can signal a potential recession in the near future. However, the proportion of consumers anticipating a recession in the next year held steady at a nine-month high, the board reported.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board.

Oh boy, so much winning, it hurts.

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Looky Here

The reciprocal wave is rising. This is the reaction to the Great Shitstorm of 2025 and PINO Trusk’s Great Undoing of peace and prosperity. Sure, we didn’t have peace and prosperity everyday for everyone, but now it’s gettin’ ugly.

Atlanta Fed predicts negative 1.5 percent GDP growth in first quarter

Oh, boy, the Atlanta Fed has started an ugly trend of downgrading GDP growth.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy.

The Atlanta Fed last week was predicting 2.3 percent positive growth for the first quarter. A month ago, it was registering 3.9 percent growth.

PINO Trusk has only been in office one month and the economy is caving in. It’s almost like he’s deliberately destroying it.

It’s not just the Atlanta Fed feeling it.

Inflation as measured in the Federal Reserve’s preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index came in at 2.5 percent annual growth on Friday, dipping by just a tenth of a percentage point after rising throughout the fall.

Personal expenditures decreased $30.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, in that report.

Consumer sentiment also fell off a cliff in January as measured by the University of Michigan’s monthly survey, dropping nearly 10 percent from January.

Perhaps of more concern for economists, consumer expectations for year-ahead inflation popped to their highest levels since November 2023, rising to 4.3 percent for next January from 3.3 percent in December.

A majority of CEOs polled last year by accounting firm PwC saw a recession coming within six months of October 2024.

“61 percent of respondents agree that the US economy will experience a recession in the next six months, up from 49 percent in our June 2024 survey,” PwC analysts found in last year’s survey.

61% of CEOs polled agree that a recession is coming? Why, that’s terrible economic news, innit? Must be, for folks who were whinging ’bout the price of eggs in November of 2024.

Egg prices keep going up. Here’s the average cost for a dozen across the U.S.

Avg. price of eggs has hit a new high

The average price of a dozen eggs in a US city hit $4.95 in January 2025; jumping by 19.5% in just one month, from $4.15 in December. The price of eggs is higher than ever before, with the previous peak at $4.82 in January 2023, and has nearly doubled since the same time last year.

That’s just eggs, right? We can live without eggs. Other prices aren’t increasing, are they? I’m just fearmongering, right?

Walmart shares tank on dismal forecast as retail giant warns of slowing sales

Walmart shares, which had risen about 72% in 2024 and hit a record high of $105 last week, were down 6%. Shares of rival retailer Target were down 1.6%, with Amazon 0.9% lower.

The company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal year ending January 2026 in the range of $2.50 to $2.60, below analysts’ expectations of $2.76, according to data compiled by LSEG.

To be sure, these are serious matters. They’re going to be made worse by PINO Trusk’s DOGE-led cudown of government services. I don’t want life to be miserable in the U.S. or the world, but this is the path which PINO Trusk and the GOTP are blazing.

We saw this coming.

We warned the rest of you.

Will PINO Trusk take action to address it? Well, right now, his focus is on making English the official language and lying to and insulting President Zelnsky.

President Trump to sign executive order making English the official language of US.

I wonder if Trump will be required to learn how to speak proper English if it’s now going to be the official language?

Somehow, I doubt it. He really seems incapable of learning. Then again, he is 78.

That’s pretty old for a job like that, innit?

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Floofvesting

Floofvesting (floofinition) – 1. Subscribing and participating in activities and investments which focus on improving animals’ existences.

In use: “Smart floofvesting begins with diet, as many pet owners have learned, as scandals revealed pet food ingredient scams which had dire impact on their pets’ health.”

2. To have a live animal (or animals) draped over you like a blanket, jacket, or sweater.

In use: “Settling down to read required no formal notice; floofvesting began within seconds as the cats and dogs found spaces on his legs, chest and abdomen, and made themselves comfortable.”

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