Five Cracks in Trump Support

Maggie Habermann wrote that the first crack in MAGA’s blind support of Trump came with Trump’s handling of the Epstein files.

Maggie Haberman reveals the moment MAGA broke with Trump

That makes sense to me. It also follows a distinct Trump pattern of making promises which he then breaks. Reading different sits online, the Epstein files were he first crack, but there were four others. In each case, a MAGA crack came because what Trump promised and what happened after he took office in his second term were far apart.

For the TL/DR crowd, the five cracks in MAGA support of Trump which I see right now:

  1. 1. Epstein files
  2. 2. Lower prices
  3. 3. Immigration policies
  4. 4. No new wars
  5. 5. Helping farmers

No, I’m not an expert on any of these things. Just a concerned and aging American citizen. Let me unpack my thinking.

When running for re-election in 2024, Trump picked up that MAGAzens really cared about the Epstein files. MAGAzens spent a lot of energy building scenarios about the damaging information the Epstein files had on Democrats and ‘elites’, two primary MAGA targets. When Trump was asked if he would release the files, Trump replied, “Probably.” Thus was born the belief that the Epstein files’ contents would finally be fully and completely seen if Trump won.

Since then, Trump has angrily demanded that people stop talking about the Epstein files, calling it a hoax. Many are also convinced that he attacked Iran initially in 2025 and tore down the White House East Wing in order to change the conversation from the Epstein files.

The damage had already been done with MAGAzens. They wanted to see what was in the Epstein files, and they’re pissed that they’re being denied.

Many Americans were completely about high inflation and the affordability crises during President Biden’s term. Seizing on that discontent, Trump promised that he would immediately lower prices. While some prices did initially drop, Trump first said that lowering inflation was harder than he thought, then dismissed affordability as a hoax, and then started the war with Iran in 2026.

Prices had already been going up in 2025, due to many factors, including Trump’s tariffs and the trade agreements he broke.

Trump then started the Iran war in February of 2026. This no gave him cover for higher prices; the higher prices were due to the war, yes, but he was doing it to free Iranians from their terrible government and to save the world from Iran’s nuclear weapons.

Either way, prices keep rising, and many now blame Trump. The second crack with MAGA had begun to spread.

Trump initially did just as he promised with immigrants. He went after them hard and violently.

Trump’s MAGA supporters were initially gleeful. But then their friends and relatives began getting picked up and whisked away.

A collective cry went out among MAGAzens. Trump said he was going to deport criminals, but he was departing people who were not criminals. Many were here legally, trying to go through the process of becoming US citizens.

Trump didn’t care. They weren’t born in the US, so he was departing them. Then, to worsen matters, Trump began sending them to nations where they were not from.

While running for office in 2024, Trump promised no new wars. He made speeches that Kamala Harris and the Democrats would start new foreign wars and decried the idea that Americans would go off and fight in another endless war.

Then, in 2026, before he was in office for two full years, Trump attacked Iran. Since then, Americans have been treated to a shifting tapestry about why Iran was attacked and the war’s objectives, how much the war is costing us, and when the war would end.

It was not the cakewalk that Trump and his administration expected. They had put in a Fox personality as the head of DOD and fired many high-ranking individuals. Trump and his staff thought they could bomb Iran into submission in a matter of days or weeks.

They were wrong.

Trump’s Iran War has been going over 210 days. Trump calls it a conflict to avoid problems with Congress and the Constitution and then calls it a war when it’s convenient to sell demands for more weapons, munitions, and cutbacks to other programs.

Even MAGAzens are seeing through this, opening a fourth crack with Trump’s MAGA base.

Trump campaigned on helping American farmers and ranchers. Trump said that raising tariffs would save American farmers because other countries were taking advantage of the US.

The tariffs didn’t lower prices. Nor did they open markets. Instead, the tariffs and Trump’s Iran war raised prices. The prices which went up the most affecting farmers and ranchers was diesel fuel and fertilizer. Potash was primary imported from Canada; Trump’s tariffs and trade war with Canada pushed those prices up yet more. In fact, diesel prices increased transportation costs across the board.

Trump knew his tariffs and the war, with its resulting high diesel prices, was hurting both consumers and producers. To address it, Trump pushed a temporary suspension of his tariffs on imported beef.

That resulted in anger among ranchers and farmers, because it didn’t help them. Farmers and ranchers’ problems are far more complex and has to do with droughts, rising energy prices, and smaller herds. Those things couldn’t be fixed by a bandage like suspended tariffs for a limited period and amounts.

Nor did suspending tariffs substantially lower prices. The fifth crack with MAGA opened.

There are potentially other cracks getting exposed.

  • Rural hospitals remain in a crisis.
  • The national debt is growing fast, disrupting the accepted truism that Republicans are fiscally more responsible.
  • People of both parties are pushing back against AI and data center construction while Trump urges more building. Trump is pushing for their construction because that’s where most of the commercial construction in the US is now taking place. Stopping construction of them would massively affect the stock market and economy.

Many rifts are emerging between Trump and MAGA. Some of those will probably expand into more cracks in their support of Trump.

The larger question for us now is when will traditional Republicans finally realize that the Trump experiment is a disaster and give him up?

The Trump Receipts

Who had Trump will ignore the court on their bingo cards?

I wasn’t overly surprised to read the Trump White House still refused to let the MS Now, Politico, and CNN reporters in after a judge issued an injunction against the White House ban on the three news organizations.

Trump declares himself as a ‘law and order’ proponent but keeps breaking laws. He also claims to be for peace while ordering attacks on other nations and insists he’s for technology — pushing AI and data centers — while stopping work on wind and solar-energy initiatives.

Likewise, Trump declared he’s for freedom of the press and freedom as speech while trying to shut down both. So ignoring the court’s ruling is totally in line with his general hypocrisy and double standards. I mean, he promised no new wars and then went to war and declared that he never promised no new wars and it’s not a war anyway. LOL. His duplicity and lawlessness are breathtaking.

Ironically, it’s technology that reveals what Trump said, context and all, proving that he said it. We have receipts: video. Transcripts. Records. He can squirm and try to wriggle out of what he said, but as long as we keep paying attention, facts and truths won’t be forgotten.

That circles us back to the Epstein files — again. Trump said that, yeah, I’ll probably release them. Then he insisted the Epstein files are a Democrat hoax.

That’s another of his favorite tactics, calling things a hoax, and blaming it on the Democrats.

Trump calls affordability crisis a ‘hoax.’ The data tells a different story

Impeaching Trump — twice — was a Democrat hoax; the Democrats’ criticism of how Trump was handling the coronavirus pandemic — hoax; Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election was a hoax, according to Trump.

Trans-Pacific Partnership? Hoax.

Climate change? Hoax, in Trumpworld.

Even rural MAGA voters have caught onto Trump’s methods and policies.

MAGA voters turned off by President Trump’s falsehoods in 2026

The distractions, lies, and broken promises are catching up with Trump.

We the People have receipts, and we’re not letting this go.

Tuesday’s Theme Music — Fall

Ashland, southern Oregon. Tuesday, September 22, 2026.

First day of fall today in the northern latitudes. Autumn and summer have been fluttering in and out for the past few weeks. Leaves are rushing to change colors in some parts of the city. Other leaves are like, nah, not yet.

Temperature today will rise to 75 degrees from its current level of 61 F. Rain showers are considered possible though in my view out the window, the clouds aren’t the rain kind. They’re just thin, wispy white paste.

Mom asked my sister Gina to let her move back in with her. Mom insisted, she would never go upstairs and Pat, Gina’s husband, would not be allowed within six feet of Mom.

Of course, Gina said, no. Pat never did anything to Mom; we have video footage proving so. Mom was hallucinating, a combo of pain pills, other medication, and UTIs. But she insists that what Pat did was real. Guess it was, to her.

The White House has announced “Trump TV”. I laughed and shook my head at that.

It’s showing clips of Trump speeches. Trump thinks himself a great orator but he’s a terrible, stumbling speaker who doesn’t stay on topic. The clips will reveal this, reminding people of Trump’s grandiose promises about greatness, lies about his accomplishments, falling prices, refund and dividend checks, and how we won in Iran as the war continues seven months later. Trump is failing and falling in approval and popularity as a result.

I have spent time reading “Leaving MAGA” over the past two days. Started by a former MAGAzen, Rich Logis, a few years ago, this is a place where Trump supporters reveal what finally broke their willingness to support Trump. They’re not monolithic but very individual stories, although they often show common threads. Most stories tell of their slow spiral into anger, disillusionment, and conspiracy theories. They end up supporting Trump because they’re hoping for change. Then they begin to notice his inconsistencies and the scales fall from their eyes.

For example, Erica Roach:

“A doctored video circulated that made it seem as if Gates was saying he could kill more people with better vaccines. 

“Then Trump played up Operation Warp Speed, which led to the creation of the COVID vaccine. He called himself the father of the vaccine. He said he had saved millions of lives. That didn’t make sense to me.

“I started doing a bunch of research in the White House archive; I found Trump executive orders, including one setting up a national influenza vaccine task force. I learned that Trump had asked Bill Gates to be the White House science advisor.

“This all upset me terribly; Q had said Trump knew about the 16-year plan to destroy America, so why was he backing what I believed to be a depopulation tool?

Trump often tries to play both sides of the field simultaneously when making claims. For instance, when running for re-election in 2020, Trump claimed that the Democrat’s characterization of the coronavirus as a “hoax”.

Then Trump ran for re-election in 2024 and hammered President Biden’s economy, especially inflation. After Trump returned to the Oval Office, he dismissed affordability as a Democratic hoax.

When Trump ran for office in 2024, he warned that Democrats would begin new wars. Then he promised no new wars, and then attacked Iran — twice, in 2025, and 2026. We remain at war with Iran seven months after Trump initiated the attacks on Iran. He tries to sell the softer term, ‘conflict’, but has also notably referred to it as a war.

Most of the US caught on to Trump’s Double Standards, outright lying, and rhetorical flexibility long ago. I’m happy that some MAGAzens are also waking up.

Today’s music is “Catch Me Now I’m Falling” by the Kinks. When I first heard the song on their live album, I thought, oh, the Kinks have done a “Jumping Jack Flash” cover.

I was wrong. While it often sounds like that Stones song, this song was written about the United States needing help back in 1979. Took me a while to decode the lyrics back then. When I finally did, I was like, whaaat?

Sample Lyrics

Now I’m calling all citizens from all over the world
This is captain America calling
I bailed you out when you were down on your knees
So will you catch me now I’m falling

Help me now I’m calling you
Catch me now I’m falling
I’m in your hands, it’s up to you
Catch me now I’m falling

I remember when you were down
You would always come running to me
I never denied you and I would guide you
Through all of your difficulties

I thought of the song today because of our nation’s fluctuations in fortune. Davis wrote and sang about America needing help in the last century, how America used to reach out and help others. In the Trump era, the US has been withdrawing and reducing help. Instead, Trump uses economic clout and military threat to bludgeon others. Hasn’t been working well, with disastrous results for the US and its allies.

I hope you enjoy the first day of whatever season this day is for you, that it makes you smile now and look back later, and smile again.

Cheers

Trump Knows Better

Trump has said for years that he knows better.

Trump knows grass, claims he probably knows more than anybody in the world.

Trump knows more than the generals, he said. He’s always believed he knows more about trade, finance, and economics, as well as tariffs. Trump also claimed he knew more about medicine during COVID-19 than many doctors.

That’s why, despite all Trump’s expertise, the national debt is skyrocketing.

Measles outbreaks have achieved levels not seen in over a quarter century.

Affordability remains a growing crisis in the United States, with oil, diesel, and energy prices leading the way.

The COVID-19 pandemic didn’t disappear overnight as Trump claimed it would. Over a million in the United States experienced COVID-19 related deaths. We are still coping with COVID-19 six years after Trump made those claims.

Look at the messes Trump has made across the world. Let’s begin with the garish gold he put on We the People’s house.

Shift to how he’s demolished the East Wing, wiping out a heritage he couldn’t grasp, which can’t be duplicated.

Trump then turned his ‘expertise’ to the Kennedy Center, which is now falling apart and begging for money.

Likewise, Trump messed up the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pond. Every time Trump had work done on the pool, Trump claimed, I know better. Every time, Trump disparaged others’ knowledge and efforts. Every time, Trump lied about what happened and bragged what he was doing next.

Trump burdened our economy with tariffs, thinking that will drive manufacturing to the United States, and started a war which he doesn’t know how to stop, which is only worsening the affordability crisis.

That would be the prices which Trump complained about as being too high under President Biden. Now they’re higher under Trump. But under Trump, Trump Double Standards are employed. He spins a new word weave. These prices are not higher. They’re coming down soon. And they’re not his fault. Nor are they a problem — it’s a golden age! Here’s some tariff relief to bring prices down and more pulled from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to try to reduce prices.

Then, Trump proffered five grand if his party keeps control of Congress.

Finally, in a desperate effort to displace blame and responsibility, Trump pivoted, blaming Ukraine for high diesel prices because Ukraine bombed Russia while pretending the war he started with Iran isn’t the single largest driver of rising prices.

Just as a reminder, Trump said he would end the Ukraine Russia war by the time he took office in 2025, eighteen months ago. Despite that claim, the war continues.

In short, Trump has created a shit show.

Now Trump is claiming that he knows more than AI experts. Eschewing their warnings, just as he dismissed warnings about tariffs, war with Iran, COVID-19 — just as he’s ignored every warning any true knowledgeable expert gave.

Your Trump Quote of the Day

Trump’s dismissive response to experts’ AI warnings has all the hallmarks of a Trump mess:

  • Trump called it a hoax
  • Trump declared himself strong and smart
  • Trump insisted that those worried about it are part of a ‘conspiracy’

Dig in. The shit storm is about to get real.

The State of Trumpland

First, a fine summary about the state of things:

States of things.

I read an article in “The Independent” about World Cup fans’ American experience. This, though, contains a critical observation to me. I added some emphasis.

“Many landed expecting the politically fractured country frequently highlighted in global headlines. Instead, they found Uber drivers brimming with recommendations and locals willing to open their homes to strangers. Even as game attendees grappled with the sticker shock of ticket prices, some Americans they met didn’t even know the World Cup was happening, or simply didn’t care.“

Honestly, I knew the World Cup was going on. I see news stories about the games and tournaments. But I am one who doesn’t care about it. Yet, I’m not surprised that some Americans were unaware of the World Cup going on; some of them emerged to vote, unsure about what’s going, back in 2024.

Then there was this from the same article:

“That felt like a proper American experience in Dallas,” Reader said. “He had, I would call it like a proper American setup, like a TV outside, a beer fridge, massive fly zappers, and then massive fans as well.”

Damn, I haven’t been exposed to that proper American setup yet.

Meanwhile, on Fox News, they’re puzzled: how can Iran be fighting back against the United States?

“I don’t understand how it’s possible that Iran has the capabilities to fight this way and continue to try to lash out at Gulf countries and U.S. military bases because the U.S. has obliterated Iran’s military, and the president continues to reiterate that,” Bartiromo said Sunday on Fox News.

Gosh, yes, it IS a mystery. How, how, how? Can it be that Trump, the person who told us prices would go down 100s to 1000s percent, Trump who claimed Mexico would pay for the wall, Trump, who was documented lying and is widely perceived as dishonest, is LYING?

The inanity of this Blue Sky post rocked me:

WTF? DEI Bike Lanes? SMFH.

Seriously, these are the idiots Trump selected to run his administration.

Enough said department:

Thirstdaz Theme Music

I’m working through tendrils of a new day, a new month, and a new year. Not much of it taxes me yet, but we’re only nine hours into it in Ashland.

Winter continues its weather games. Today, Thirstda, January 1, 2026, brings rain and a leaden, swollen sky. Winds whisper, howl, and moan. Temperatures around town reportedly range of 46 degrees F to 53. My house says it’s 51. Today’s high will be…51.

I posted news of Dad’s passing on Facebook and heard from many, including military peers, corporation co-workers, fellow writers-in-struggling, and friends on other continents. Comfort and thankfulness rose in me for so many taking the time from their lives to comment.

I’ve accepted Dad’s death on at least the surface. Flashes of not being able to speak or visit with him slide like gentle waves through my thoughts. Some tears fell yesterday. Today, I’m remembering him with fondness, chuckling and laughing at memories of how he smiled, laughed, and spoke.

As for the new year and month, I’m uncertain of what to expect. Last year was a ride on a cantankerous bear. Too many Trump and GOP actions dismayed my core. That core holds beliefs that We the People are supposed to have a voice in our government; that laws will be followed and enforced; that everyone is equal and deserves freedom and respect. Actions such as Trump’s rants about hoaxes, fake news, Democratic scum, and ICE rounding up people without due process all undermine my hopes.

I’ll continue voting, protesting, and writing about how Trump is conducting business. And I’ll keep trying to nurture hope and optimism that we’ll see a shift toward my hopeful vision of progress and democracy.

Here’s today’s music: “God Gave Rock and Roll to You”. The 1973 song was written by Russ Ballard. Ballard was in Argent at the time, so Argent performed and released it.

I suspect The Neurons planted the song in the morning mental music stream because I was thinking about working hard on the novel-in-progress, and the need to keep editing it. The song reflects those sentiments on one stanza:

Lyrics (h/t to Genius.com)

If you wanna be a singer or play guitar
Man, you’ve gotta sweat, or you won’t get far
‘Cause it’s never too late to work nine to five
And if you’re young, then you’ll never be old
Music can make your dreams unfold
How good it feels to be alive

Coffee is served again. May peace and grace find you and guide you along a hopeful path in the new year. Cheers

Patient 46

He cited Elon Musk. “Elon Musk thinks the threat from the coronavirus is overblown. He’s a smart guy, and I agree with him.” Nodding, his friends came in closer to hear him. “Musk said that you’re more likely to be killed in a car accident going home from work than from the corollavirus.”

He purposefully misspoke, mocking the term, making his friends snort and scoff. “Just like President Trump said, this is a hoax. Yeah, sure, there’s a disease out there, but it’s not that big a deal. It’s not even as bad as the swine flu. We survived it, and we’ll survive this, too.”

“Fuckin’ a,” “Damn straight,” and “Preach it brother,” friends replied as others nodded agreement and encouragement.

Patient 46 continued, “The media is exploiting the news and the gullible sheeple because they don’t like Trump. They want this virus to succeed. They want people to die. It’s just like Trish Regan said, it’s an impeachment scam. They couldn’t legally impeach Trump, so now they’re trying to do this. You know she was right, because they shut her up straightaway, took her right off the air. Why else would they do that, if she wasn’t right?”

The rest agreed. A newcomer arrived. Greetings were bellowed.

Patient 46 turned away. It felt hot as hell in the bar. Sweat peppered his forehead. He took another long swallow of cold Bud to drown his fever. Nausea swarmed him. He mopped his face with a sleeve and then wiped his palm across his face. “Damn, it’s hot in this place,” he said loudly, but the televisions and jukebox drowned his words.

A grinning friend leaned in close. “Hey, man, don’t you know that you’re not supposed to be touching your face?”

The two laughed and slapped their palms together in a high-five salute. Each then made a show of touching their faces. Then, shrieking with greater laughter, his friend said, “No one said that I can’t touch your face.”

“Right on, scratch my nose for me,” Patient 46 said. His friend obliged as the two snorted and giggled.

It was the last thing that Patient 46 remembered before he awoke alone in the hospital. Lit machines were beeping, sighing, and humming. Tubes snaked to and from his body.

Such bullshit, he thought, such bullshit, what an over-reaction. Closing his eyes, he fought to breathe. Someone poisoned him, he thought. Trying to shut him up and make an example out of him. Probably the CIA or FBI. They were arms of the shadow government that Obama and Killary were running. Everyone knew it.

He’d show them. He would survive this fucking assassination attempt, and then share his story as a precautionary tale about the measures the libtards would take to shut people like him up.

Patient 46 died a few days later. His story remained untold. His services were sparsely attended.

Everyone was too sick to attend, but all agreed, it was a damn shame that such a smart guy, a real man like him, should die in a hospital bed like that.

Yes, a damn shame.

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