We’re almost halfway through March of 2026 and have seen the United States attack another nation, embrace more tariffs, and see more rising prices.
After a breakneck pace, fallout is arriving. Under Trump, led by Noem at Homeland Security, ICE created recurring headlines around confrontations, court cases, and death. Now Noem is out.
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the administration could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs. National refunds were ordered.
It’s a $170 billion dollar refund question, and Customs and Border Protection initially said, they can’t do it — yet.
The agency estimates that there have been roughly 53 million entries subject to IEEPA tariffs as of March 4, accounting for roughly $166 billion in deposits. The agency further said because CBP personnel must validate all refund requests, it would take over 4 million labor hours to complete returns for all IEEPA tariffs.
Trump hastily swung to other rationales for the tariffs, invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a new 10% tariff on imports from all countries. He later threatened to raise that to 15%.
Twenty-four states sued, arguing Section 122 requires tariffs to be applied nondiscriminatory and uniformly, contrary to Trump’s announcement. Some critics argue Section 122 has never been used for broad tariffs because it was meant for narrow, temporary financial emergencies that no longer exist.
We’re waiting to see what happens next.
More critically, we’re waiting to see what will happen next in the Trump Iran War. Israel is moving aggressively with the U.S. alongside them as a military power but costs are stacking. The war is expensive in terms of human life and financial costs. Most importantly to Trump, he’s probably realizing he’s a FAFO fool for attacking Iran, destabilizing the region, and upending the global economy.
Patterns and reminders are fast emerging that this is economy depends on shipping and cooperation. Trump was warned that before, when he broke trade agreements, arbitrarily imposed-rescinded-imposed-changed tariffs, and when he attacked allies and let the U.S. walk away from defense agreements.
Oil and gas prices swiftly went up. As oil storage tanks filled, production facilities shut down, because the shipping lanes have been impacted.
The results of all those are hurtling toward us in big ways. While ‘inflation’ is stable, that doesn’t include volatile things like food and energy prices. Food and energy are where American consumers are most affected.
More people are becoming aware that Trump promised no new wars. Now words like draft and phrases like ‘boots on the ground’ are rising in use. Polls show voters don’t like the air and naval war already in progress. They’ll like it less if large ground forces are sent into Iran.
When will it end?
We don’t know.
Neither does Trump, apparently. He has said, “We won.”
Trump also said — on the same day — it’s “ending soon.”
He also said that it’ll end whenever he says it ends.
Joe Rogan, a Trump supporter, seems like a bellwether. He’s called the Iran war, “nuts.” In comments made in an interview, Rogan pointed out that Trump is breaking his campaign promises.
“I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right? He ran on ‘no more wars,’ ‘end these stupid, senseless wars,’ and then we have one that we can’t even really clearly define why we did it.”
Many Trump voters had already awakened to Trump’s broken promises about lowering food prices on Day One.
They’ve noticed, too, that Trump didn’t end the Ukraine War on Day One. He later claimed he was being “sarcastic”.
That response is part of Trump’s regular responses whenever something is pointed out that’s factually wrong. For example, during the early part of the Trump Iran War, a school in Iran was bombed, resulting in 165 and 175 people killed, mostly children.
Trump suggested it was Iran’s fault.
“In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran…We think it was done by Iran, because they’re very inaccurate with their munitions, they have no accuracy whatsoever, it was done by Iran.”
When pressed by a reporter if Mr. Trump’s assessment was accurate, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth responded that the Pentagon was “investigating,” adding that “the only side that targets civilians is Iran.”
Investigations show a U.S. Tomahawk missile hit the school.
Trump responded, “I don’t know about that.”
The impact of Trump’s whimsical, chaotic approach is slowly adding up. I’m just waiting for the tipping point.
It can’t come too soon for me.
Michael Seidel, writer 