Tag: economy

Frida’s Theme Music

Mood: Happysad

It’s a gorgeous January day. It’s also a sloppy January day, dark and gloomy. Depends. Comparing the day’s weather to other places and their situations, you can easily judge one way or the other. We’re not especially happy because this Friday, Jan. 3, 2025, is sunny, cloudy, and rain, or suncloura. We’ve been having many suncloura days. That’s part of the trick, too: if there’s a succession of like days, it weighs on us. All of this falls onto the final piece, whether you like this kind of weather, or even thrive in it, or you fall into the circle of thought that it’s okay but could be improved. The temp. BTW is 44 F. High will be 51 F.

Another local restaurant went out of businesses on Jan 1. Pie +Vine is the closure. It replaced Piatta’s about ten year ago. Both were owned by the same folk. I’m sad because it means unemployment for some. Conversely, the food has been steadily declining since it opened. Conversations about eating there often mentioned how bad the last meal or the last service was. The same people own several other restaurants. People are not pleased with the owners because they gave no warning to their employees. Just locked doors and put a notice on the door, we’re closed and done. Not the way to treat people, and several employees claim those owners have done the same thing at other businesses across the years.

My wife and a friend are going to see Wicked today. I opted out. Didn’t want to slice another three hours out of another writing day. The movie is two hours and forty minutes but then you need to reach the theater, park, etc. So. They decided they’d first meet for coffee and pastries, so the outing has been extended to about four and a half hours. I’m pleased to have solitary time. I love my wife and enjoy her company but we are together a lot.

Over in the news, I see Republicans making false claims about the New Orleans and Las Vegas terrorists. The Army vets are claimed to have just come over the border. Those lies have been thoroughly disproven but the base will digest it children going after popcorn. Meanwhile, ‘Trump Warned About Invading Mexico’ in a Newsweek headline. “Experts are urging caution.” The article is slanted IMO toward Trump actually using military actions in the way it’s written. GOP talking points about the border are given without any fact-checking or counter-discussion. Piss poor journalism. Seems more like a balloon being floated to see what kind of reaction the idea of invading Mexico gets. It’s been comprehensively demonstrated that the GOP doesn’t need facts to sell their ideas. Given how the Roberts Supreme Court has treated Trump, I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump does use military force. Democrats and the international community would condemn it but the GOP would probably crow, “What a man!”

I can imagine such an action quickly escalating into economic arenas, with Mexico retaliating by cutting off the flow of exports, affecting manufacturing, especially cars. Mexico is the number one car manufacturing nation in the western hemisphere. Most of the cars are shipped to the U.S. If car availalability in the US drops, prices go up, driving up inflation and decreasing sales. That would apply to not just new cars but used cars; it’s a ripple effect. The lack of sales revenues would cut into state and local tax revenues. Given all these things, someone might be able to talk Trump and his bloodthirsty Administration down. Hard to say. Trump likes the idea of being ‘manly’ in a corrupted, negative way that was once prized as the epitome of manliness.

Today finds “Missing You” by John Waite circulating through the morning mental music stream (Trademark missing). The 1984 song is all about missing someone while lying to themself and denying that they miss them at all. That’s how it goes with me when the wife is away. The house feels chillier. It’d definitely quieter. I miss turning and saying something or having her ask or tell me something, even if I do also resent it at times. Such are relationships.

Have a proper Frida. Do it up right. It’s the first one of a new year. The new on the year is already fading. Here’s my coffee and the music. Cheers

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Friday’s Wandering Political Thoughts

Just a few things cropping into my mind in the final month of 2024.

With Trump as POTUS, I expect him to install his beloved tariffs. That will damage the economy. I expect unemployment to rise as companies cut staff to deal with less sales volume and protect the bottom line. I expect less sales volume because companies will pass on tariffs to consumers. I expect inflation will rise, first due to tariffs; second, due to retalitory tariffs; third due to shortages in manufacturing, service employees, and agriculture. I expect sales to decline because discretionary income will decrease as inflation drives up the cost of goods. I expect the shortages in manufacturing, service employees, and agriculture will come about because of the expected mass deportation scheme the Trump administration plans. I expect local economies to falter due to all the previously mentioned issues. I expect drug use, suicides, homelessness, and crime to rise. I expect the national debt to swell as tax revenues decline. I expect record profits to continue at corporations as they take advantage of the shortages and business-favored governmental environment and raise prices. I expect the air and drinking water to get worse, especially in poor communities and red states. I expect voter’s remorse to arise by 2026. I expect the media to begin turning on Trump and his administration by the middle of 2025 as they sense the nation’s mood and deem it safe to criticize him. I expect Trump’s administration to start turning over before the end of 2024 as infighting, anger, and frustration among them escalates and Trump attacks them for his collapsing approval numbers. I expect Trump to get angrier and angrier, sending out attack texts in increasing numbers, using false information, making accusations, and whining about being treated unfairly. I expect many of his texts will be in all caps with multiple exclamation points.

I don’t have a crystal ball. I’m not a prophet. I just read my history. These are all trends that history predicts because it’s all happened before.

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Twosday’s Theme Music

Mood: Twosdayized

28 degrees, Twosday come into the valley with sunshine, blue skies, and patchy fog. The day hovers in the liminal folds between autumn and winter, that murky zone called autner. Feels like it could get colder. Feels like clouds could march in and dump snow. But the sunshine claims it might get warmer. In fact, some forecasters insist, as they have on previous days, that today’s high will crack the fifties and stalk the upper edges toward sixty. But the valley’s stagnant air messes with the forecasting process. Yesterday’s high attained 45 F when 56 F was supposed to be the ceiling. So, I’m not planning to see 56 F today.

This stagnant air is weird. A still, windless phenomena, the chill it carries creeps through everything. You dress for much colder air and the house heating works hard because that creeping chill.

Going through the valley yesterday to shop, I saw that a thin line of brown pollution rimmed the more populated western region. Get used to that, I thought. Trump and his clown cabinet will cut regulations. “Business,” they’ll shout, and the sheeple shout, “Yes. Business first.” Business means prosperity, right? Wage increases. Profits. Bull market.

Most of the sheeple fail to understand that the government and economy worked better under Democratic control. Their limited memories don’t pull up the dark, sooty airs the United States experienced in the 1960s and 1970s before the EPA and their pesky regs came out and ordered, “Thou shall not pollute.” Nor do they comprehend the impact on health that it brings, and the reciprical effect on productivity and costs due to worker illness and absences. They don’t think that fucking deep. Or course, it’s hard to do so with Republicans bleating otherwise in a 24/7 cacophony. And it’s hard to remember and think whn your education is being hamstrung with teachings about how Jesus saved the world and climate change is a hoax, and look! Illegals! Trans! Woke! They also believe that wealthy people won’t hoard their wealth but will spread it around like fertilizer and turn everything cash green for everyone.

Yes, they are fucking fools.

Sigh. On to other matters.

We shopped at Costco. It’s been a go-to for us since the early 1990s. Our local Costco was moderately busy on a Monday afternoon. Mostly older shoppers. Ahem. Like us. As we entered and began our prowl, my wife shouted at the milling shoppers, “What about inflation?” She’s still riled up about that. I told her, “Babe, they’ve heard whispers that it’s gonna get worse. This is Doomsday shopping. They’re out here trying to get deals and soothe their troubled minds with food and toys to help them when reality crashes in.”

Being the second day of the workweek, it’s natural that this is called Twosday. Many don’t realize that the first spelling for ‘two’ or 2 was tue. Somehow, as the language and alphabet swelled into its current shape, tue became two. But the day of the week was already cemented in influential calendar makers, so Tuesdays remained.*

* Yes, that was all b.s.

Today’s music came out in 2020, while lockdown was prevalent. Being retired, I don’t work, so the song doesn’t really address me and my grips. But The Neurons called it up because I’ve been muttering to myself, “I need to get back to the coffee shop and get back to work on my writing.” Ding ding ding. The Neurons had a piece of “Work” by Pop Evil in the morning mental music stream (Trademark being worked): “All I do is work!”

Alright, coffee and I have come to an agreement. I will make it and pour it into my watering hole, and it will kick my energy up. Look up, open your eyes, and breathe deep. Time for another Twosday to be vanquished. Here’s the music. Cheers

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Monday’s Political Thoughts

Just a bag of trick or treat political offerings. C’mon, man, with December holiday props already up in places, I can be excused for being a few days early for Halloween, can’t I?

I know facts are not in vogue with the Grand Old Trump party. But Schwab sent me an email with links to historic data about political parties and various financial facts since 1961. People claim it’s the economy, so let’s take a look.

  1. The proferred analysis shows that what party is in charge doesn’t affect the stock markets. They keep going up no matter who is charge.
  2. GDP. If you’re worried about the GDP, go Democrat.
    • The annual average growth under Republicans is 2.5%.
    • Democratic presidents saw 3.3% average growth. President Johnson led everyone with 5.5%.
  3. If it’s unemployment rates causing your political itches, go Democrat.
    • “Next, we can look at the unemployment rate, which on average started lower under Republican presidents than under Democrats. However, on average, the unemployment rate rose under Republicans and fell under Democrats.”
  4. Turning attention to the S&P 500, should that be what gives you a rash, the Democratic Party is the one for you.
    • “As shown via the summary rows at the bottom, stocks have performed better in all four cycle years under Democratic presidents.“

As for the sectors, no rhyme and reason is found regarding the political party in charge. Check out the article for the fuller deets.

Annie shared Infidel753’s post about polls and the chance for a blue sweep. Infidel753 cautions that they might not be right, but they point out some trends, logic, and past results for why a blue wave might happen. Check it out.

The brilliant boy, Elon Musk, has the classic Trump grasp of governing. As do Trump supporters. Musk warns about some hardships trying to immediately slash the government’s burden. From what I’ve understood of the Federal budget process, Congress controls it.

“The Constitution makes clear that Congress holds the power of the purse, giving it authority “to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises” and specifying that “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by law.” In short, federal taxing and spending requires legislation that is enacted into law.”

As usual, the Constitution and its strictures mean nothing to the GOT Party. They just want to do what they want to do.

Vote blue. I have.

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Friday’s Political Thoughts

The September Job Report came out. You may have heard about it. Way over expectations. Orgasmically great, to judge from multiple reactions from economists and economic advisors.

Critically, how it hits with ‘undecided voters’ is what has me on my chair’s edge. This is continued good news for the Biden economy. But those UVs are often puzzled about what is going on with the Biden economy and focus on how they will do in the Trump economy. After all, Trump promises great tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations, which will trickle down and give these UVs an extra drop of discretionary income and a little wiggle room against the monthly vise grip of needs and expenses. Meanwhile, a veritable blizzard of explanations about Harris and her positions leave many UVs doubtful about Harris and her economic policies. Inflation, they cry as inflation continues trucking under three percent, close enough to the Fed’s 2.5 target that the Fed deemed it time to do something about interest rates.

I know, I’m riding UVs hard. Being merciless about their reasoning. UVs be like, “Well, it’d be more of the same with Democrats if I vote for Harris, who I don’t know much about because she’s only been the California AG, a Senator, and the Vice POTUS for almost four years after being a POTUS candidate in 2020, and we know those Democrats are in corporate pockets and will continue their warlike stance and maintain democracy and strive for civil rights for all. Or it’s Trump and his sweet merchandise deals like his golden shoes his cryptocurrency and that terrific line of watches, and the P2025 and book-banning pushers who back him and his efforts to torpedo democracy such as Jan 6., skirt accountability for what he says and does, and flops over on every issue, including abortion bans, but is consistently very sweet on dictators like Putin.”

Yep, we’ll just need to wait and see what those UVs say.

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Today’s Interesting Headline

Seeing this, you ponder the supply chain. And location: China. Do they celebrate Christmas? I don’t believe so, except in Western homes — especially the United States — or places where profits are celebrated.

The time of year of the headline is digested: autumn has just begun. Christmas is three months away. But we know that we’ll soon see Christmas displays emerging at retail sites. Carols and festive music will rock out on radios and public announcement systems before Halloween. We’ll begin hearing about the latest must-have technology, games, and amazing stocking stuffers. Debates will re-emerge about Black Friday and its impact on Thanksgiving and families. The Elf will return to the shelf. And the car deals! Why, there’s never been anything else like it!

It’ll be a FordMercedesBenzBMWChevroletDodgeToyotaKiaVolkswagenJeep Christmas to remember, I’ll bet.

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Tuesday’s Theme Music

I went with an old familiar from David Bowie and Queen today. Queen’s Freddie Mercury is gone, along with David Bowie, unnecessary reminders about our final destinations.

They made their marks, though. Thanks to technology, solace can be had by listening to their performances again and again.

As today is election day in the USA (prompting some mental hearing of Alice Cooper and their song, “Elected”), but “Under Pressure” (released in 1981) seems more of a fit. Sadly, that’s because Trump and his followers, abetted by the GOP, are working hard to create obstacles for this civic duty. Once upon a day, the United States had low turnout but the elections themselves were flawlessly executed. A lot of that changed with the hanging chads debacle in Florida in 2000. At least, such is where it seems to start in my mind, as the SCOTUS was called upon to interpret state laws, halt the recount, and declare a winner. Since then, campaigning and elections have become more contentious in the USA.

The nature of Trump’s campaigning and the attributes of his base have added to the pressure. Trump wants votes to not be counted, squalling like an infant over cheating that doesn’t exist, threatening to challenge results in court beforehand, obviously attempting to intimidate voters. Gun and ammo sales are up. The FBI is warning of the threat of violence from armed Trump supporters.

More pressure yet comes from COVID-19. Again, politics are in play. Republican led states are leading as COVID-19 cases climb. As cases climb, hospitals fill, but our healthcare system under greater and greater pressure.

That pressure comes atop the economic pressure instilled by necessary measures to flatter the curve. Experts consistently warned that a sizeable chunk of the US population is working poor, without emergency savings, living from paycheck to paycheck. All that was swept under the rug. Now, coronavirus has curtailed the service and consumer economy, and people are under pressure to have enough money to pay the rent and buy food.

Yeah, it’s a mess. All of that is just a tiny fraction of the mess we’re in – so many things weren’t mentioned because I didn’t want to go too ranty before my coffee – but it all adds to the pressure that we face in the United States, part of the pressure we’re facing in the world, making the Queen/David Bowie song “Under Pressure” my choice for today’s theme music.

Now I need to go see a machine about some coffee. Cheers

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Wednesday’s Theme Music

Ah, pressure! The pressure on the healthcare system, the pressure on the global economy, the pressure on the governments and the parties, the pressure on the people.

Reading about all the events happening yesterday, the U.S. government’s coronavirus forecasts, and the political sniping, I kept thinking about pressure. Several major retailers say they have a few months of liquidity; they may not survive. People have been furloughed. Sales have plunged. Newly unemployed people are facing the first of the month and the pressure to pay bills when they don’t have much money.

That our ‘healthy economy’ in the U.S. was a facade has been pointed out for decades. Food insecurity was growing. More people were working in consumer oriented service industries. More were depending on tips. The gig economy was rising, and so was wealth inequality.

Pressure.

Billy Joel (such a talented dude) summed up in his song, “Pressure” (1982).

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The Cusp of Revolutions

I’m pretty excited this morning. Awoke in that state. I owe this excitement to a teenage woman.

I didn’t meet her, but I saw and listened to her. It was during our weekly beer meeting of the BoBs, the pretentious and silly name of our group, “Brains on Beers”. It’s actually a group of retired doctors, scientists, engineers, professors, etc, that meet to have a beer each week and talk. We mostly talk about science, technology, politics, and beer.

We also collect and donate money to buy materials to help local schools and their STEM educational programs. One of the projects we support is the southern Oregon robotics team. The teenager was with that group when four of them came to us to pitch their project for a donation.

An adult leader and three local high school students were making the pitch. Christina, the young woman that I found so inspiring. She loves science. My sense, from listening to her, is that she loves life, knowledge, and learning. Her dream is to join Space X and go into space and colonize other places. Her enthusiasm was like gulping a dozen shots of espresso at once. It was beautiful to behold.

Her comments and enthusiasm trickled into my thinking streams. Eventually, a week later, thoughts came together and bubbled up from my subconscious thinking, and I realized, we’re on a cusp of a revolution.

No, make that revolutions.

People feel and see them coming. That scares and intimidates them. Many people dislike change, or are uncomfortable with change. I’m not too good with it, myself. Processing change requires time and energy. I often feel like I lack enough of either, and just want to climb into bed and cover my head.

Yet, I could see the revolutions coming so clearly in my thoughts this morning as I contemplated my fading dreams. I saw at least another industrial revolution as we move away from fossil fuels and introduce more robotics and automation.

We’re undergoing an information revolution right now. How we acquire, process, and spread information has evolved, and that evolution is speeding up. To combat it, guerrilla warfare comprising of false information and false equivalencies have been

We’re undergoing gender revolutions, and revolutions that are overturning Business As Usual. Sexual assaults, bigotry, and prejudice are being exposed. In a sense, we needed the Trump Administration, because its existence turned on the lights, revealing the ugliness that we’ve institutionalize and accepted as normal and standard.

Of course, the technological and digital revolutions are underway, as well. These are leading to social and cultural revolutions. These revolutions will cause yet greater economic and political revolutions. The great democratic revolution will itself undergo another revolution because the representative form of government, with its elections that establish a ruling class, has been outgrown. So have nation states, as we conceive of ourselves more and more as humans sharing a planet with finite resources, with a need to improve how we use those resources, and begin developing plans to seriously use exo-resources on other worlds.

That’ll launch the space revolution.

It’ll all be a bloody mess for a long time, of course. We know that economic, social, political, and regional stagnation and siloing reduce cooperation and create obstacles and roadblocks. Some like these obstacles. They even want to build walls, because they’re afraid, or they don’t want their comfort zone to change, which is wholly understandable.

But, smart people are out there. They’re perceiving these problems, and they’re conceiving solutions and new approaches.

Trust me. I heard one.

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