Tag: economy

Monday’s Political Thoughts

Just a bag of trick or treat political offerings. C’mon, man, with December holiday props already up in places, I can be excused for being a few days early for Halloween, can’t I?

I know facts are not in vogue with the Grand Old Trump party. But Schwab sent me an email with links to historic data about political parties and various financial facts since 1961. People claim it’s the economy, so let’s take a look.

  1. The proferred analysis shows that what party is in charge doesn’t affect the stock markets. They keep going up no matter who is charge.
  2. GDP. If you’re worried about the GDP, go Democrat.
    • The annual average growth under Republicans is 2.5%.
    • Democratic presidents saw 3.3% average growth. President Johnson led everyone with 5.5%.
  3. If it’s unemployment rates causing your political itches, go Democrat.
    • “Next, we can look at the unemployment rate, which on average started lower under Republican presidents than under Democrats. However, on average, the unemployment rate rose under Republicans and fell under Democrats.”
  4. Turning attention to the S&P 500, should that be what gives you a rash, the Democratic Party is the one for you.
    • “As shown via the summary rows at the bottom, stocks have performed better in all four cycle years under Democratic presidents.“

As for the sectors, no rhyme and reason is found regarding the political party in charge. Check out the article for the fuller deets.

Annie shared Infidel753’s post about polls and the chance for a blue sweep. Infidel753 cautions that they might not be right, but they point out some trends, logic, and past results for why a blue wave might happen. Check it out.

The brilliant boy, Elon Musk, has the classic Trump grasp of governing. As do Trump supporters. Musk warns about some hardships trying to immediately slash the government’s burden. From what I’ve understood of the Federal budget process, Congress controls it.

“The Constitution makes clear that Congress holds the power of the purse, giving it authority “to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises” and specifying that “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by law.” In short, federal taxing and spending requires legislation that is enacted into law.”

As usual, the Constitution and its strictures mean nothing to the GOT Party. They just want to do what they want to do.

Vote blue. I have.

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Friday’s Political Thoughts

The September Job Report came out. You may have heard about it. Way over expectations. Orgasmically great, to judge from multiple reactions from economists and economic advisors.

Critically, how it hits with ‘undecided voters’ is what has me on my chair’s edge. This is continued good news for the Biden economy. But those UVs are often puzzled about what is going on with the Biden economy and focus on how they will do in the Trump economy. After all, Trump promises great tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations, which will trickle down and give these UVs an extra drop of discretionary income and a little wiggle room against the monthly vise grip of needs and expenses. Meanwhile, a veritable blizzard of explanations about Harris and her positions leave many UVs doubtful about Harris and her economic policies. Inflation, they cry as inflation continues trucking under three percent, close enough to the Fed’s 2.5 target that the Fed deemed it time to do something about interest rates.

I know, I’m riding UVs hard. Being merciless about their reasoning. UVs be like, “Well, it’d be more of the same with Democrats if I vote for Harris, who I don’t know much about because she’s only been the California AG, a Senator, and the Vice POTUS for almost four years after being a POTUS candidate in 2020, and we know those Democrats are in corporate pockets and will continue their warlike stance and maintain democracy and strive for civil rights for all. Or it’s Trump and his sweet merchandise deals like his golden shoes his cryptocurrency and that terrific line of watches, and the P2025 and book-banning pushers who back him and his efforts to torpedo democracy such as Jan 6., skirt accountability for what he says and does, and flops over on every issue, including abortion bans, but is consistently very sweet on dictators like Putin.”

Yep, we’ll just need to wait and see what those UVs say.

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Today’s Interesting Headline

Seeing this, you ponder the supply chain. And location: China. Do they celebrate Christmas? I don’t believe so, except in Western homes — especially the United States — or places where profits are celebrated.

The time of year of the headline is digested: autumn has just begun. Christmas is three months away. But we know that we’ll soon see Christmas displays emerging at retail sites. Carols and festive music will rock out on radios and public announcement systems before Halloween. We’ll begin hearing about the latest must-have technology, games, and amazing stocking stuffers. Debates will re-emerge about Black Friday and its impact on Thanksgiving and families. The Elf will return to the shelf. And the car deals! Why, there’s never been anything else like it!

It’ll be a FordMercedesBenzBMWChevroletDodgeToyotaKiaVolkswagenJeep Christmas to remember, I’ll bet.

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Tuesday’s Theme Music

I went with an old familiar from David Bowie and Queen today. Queen’s Freddie Mercury is gone, along with David Bowie, unnecessary reminders about our final destinations.

They made their marks, though. Thanks to technology, solace can be had by listening to their performances again and again.

As today is election day in the USA (prompting some mental hearing of Alice Cooper and their song, “Elected”), but “Under Pressure” (released in 1981) seems more of a fit. Sadly, that’s because Trump and his followers, abetted by the GOP, are working hard to create obstacles for this civic duty. Once upon a day, the United States had low turnout but the elections themselves were flawlessly executed. A lot of that changed with the hanging chads debacle in Florida in 2000. At least, such is where it seems to start in my mind, as the SCOTUS was called upon to interpret state laws, halt the recount, and declare a winner. Since then, campaigning and elections have become more contentious in the USA.

The nature of Trump’s campaigning and the attributes of his base have added to the pressure. Trump wants votes to not be counted, squalling like an infant over cheating that doesn’t exist, threatening to challenge results in court beforehand, obviously attempting to intimidate voters. Gun and ammo sales are up. The FBI is warning of the threat of violence from armed Trump supporters.

More pressure yet comes from COVID-19. Again, politics are in play. Republican led states are leading as COVID-19 cases climb. As cases climb, hospitals fill, but our healthcare system under greater and greater pressure.

That pressure comes atop the economic pressure instilled by necessary measures to flatter the curve. Experts consistently warned that a sizeable chunk of the US population is working poor, without emergency savings, living from paycheck to paycheck. All that was swept under the rug. Now, coronavirus has curtailed the service and consumer economy, and people are under pressure to have enough money to pay the rent and buy food.

Yeah, it’s a mess. All of that is just a tiny fraction of the mess we’re in – so many things weren’t mentioned because I didn’t want to go too ranty before my coffee – but it all adds to the pressure that we face in the United States, part of the pressure we’re facing in the world, making the Queen/David Bowie song “Under Pressure” my choice for today’s theme music.

Now I need to go see a machine about some coffee. Cheers

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Wednesday’s Theme Music

Ah, pressure! The pressure on the healthcare system, the pressure on the global economy, the pressure on the governments and the parties, the pressure on the people.

Reading about all the events happening yesterday, the U.S. government’s coronavirus forecasts, and the political sniping, I kept thinking about pressure. Several major retailers say they have a few months of liquidity; they may not survive. People have been furloughed. Sales have plunged. Newly unemployed people are facing the first of the month and the pressure to pay bills when they don’t have much money.

That our ‘healthy economy’ in the U.S. was a facade has been pointed out for decades. Food insecurity was growing. More people were working in consumer oriented service industries. More were depending on tips. The gig economy was rising, and so was wealth inequality.

Pressure.

Billy Joel (such a talented dude) summed up in his song, “Pressure” (1982).

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The Cusp of Revolutions

I’m pretty excited this morning. Awoke in that state. I owe this excitement to a teenage woman.

I didn’t meet her, but I saw and listened to her. It was during our weekly beer meeting of the BoBs, the pretentious and silly name of our group, “Brains on Beers”. It’s actually a group of retired doctors, scientists, engineers, professors, etc, that meet to have a beer each week and talk. We mostly talk about science, technology, politics, and beer.

We also collect and donate money to buy materials to help local schools and their STEM educational programs. One of the projects we support is the southern Oregon robotics team. The teenager was with that group when four of them came to us to pitch their project for a donation.

An adult leader and three local high school students were making the pitch. Christina, the young woman that I found so inspiring. She loves science. My sense, from listening to her, is that she loves life, knowledge, and learning. Her dream is to join Space X and go into space and colonize other places. Her enthusiasm was like gulping a dozen shots of espresso at once. It was beautiful to behold.

Her comments and enthusiasm trickled into my thinking streams. Eventually, a week later, thoughts came together and bubbled up from my subconscious thinking, and I realized, we’re on a cusp of a revolution.

No, make that revolutions.

People feel and see them coming. That scares and intimidates them. Many people dislike change, or are uncomfortable with change. I’m not too good with it, myself. Processing change requires time and energy. I often feel like I lack enough of either, and just want to climb into bed and cover my head.

Yet, I could see the revolutions coming so clearly in my thoughts this morning as I contemplated my fading dreams. I saw at least another industrial revolution as we move away from fossil fuels and introduce more robotics and automation.

We’re undergoing an information revolution right now. How we acquire, process, and spread information has evolved, and that evolution is speeding up. To combat it, guerrilla warfare comprising of false information and false equivalencies have been

We’re undergoing gender revolutions, and revolutions that are overturning Business As Usual. Sexual assaults, bigotry, and prejudice are being exposed. In a sense, we needed the Trump Administration, because its existence turned on the lights, revealing the ugliness that we’ve institutionalize and accepted as normal and standard.

Of course, the technological and digital revolutions are underway, as well. These are leading to social and cultural revolutions. These revolutions will cause yet greater economic and political revolutions. The great democratic revolution will itself undergo another revolution because the representative form of government, with its elections that establish a ruling class, has been outgrown. So have nation states, as we conceive of ourselves more and more as humans sharing a planet with finite resources, with a need to improve how we use those resources, and begin developing plans to seriously use exo-resources on other worlds.

That’ll launch the space revolution.

It’ll all be a bloody mess for a long time, of course. We know that economic, social, political, and regional stagnation and siloing reduce cooperation and create obstacles and roadblocks. Some like these obstacles. They even want to build walls, because they’re afraid, or they don’t want their comfort zone to change, which is wholly understandable.

But, smart people are out there. They’re perceiving these problems, and they’re conceiving solutions and new approaches.

Trust me. I heard one.

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