I’m pleased to share Annie’s recap of about Simon Rosenberg. “Hopium” Rosenberg’s insights into the 2024 polls — and why they’re wrong — make tremendous sense to me. Read and think about what his take, and you’ll see what I mean. Like these significant points:
Can you explain why? This goes back to the midterm congressional elections in 2022, as I recall?
“Yes. The argument I made then was threefold. One was that the Republicans did something unusual in 2022. Usually when a party loses elections, they run away from the politics that caused them to lose. And Republicans were running toward it. They were becoming ever more MAGA, even though MAGA had lost in 2018 and 2020.
“Second, that Biden was actually a good president, and we’d have a strong case to make. And third, there’s been this huge increase in citizen engagement in the Democratic Party. We’ve been raising crazy amounts of money and have an unprecedented number of volunteers because of the fear of MAGA”.
“We were stronger and better than was the conventional wisdom. The constant mistake everyone’s been making since the spring of 2022 has been the overestimating of their strength and the underestimating of ours. We went into Election Day with there being this huge belief that the Democrats were going to get killed. I believed those three things were going to allow us to do better than people expected in 2022. And I have that basic view now about 2024.“
I mean, shouldn’t we ask why what didn’t work in three previous elections will work in a fourth? No; three strikes; Trump is out.
Cheers
Michael Seidel, writer 