I’ve read a number of recent pieces about the economy. They focus mostly on the confusion now seen in the U.S. economy. Why tariffs didn’t increase prices as much as expected. Why customers are so negative about the economy when the numbers aren’t bad. Why consumer spending remains up while consumer confidence is down.

Trump’s antics play much into their impressions. He’s broken trade agreements. Then, by leveling tariffs on everything in the name of national security, he’s shifted expectations. Prices are expected to increase due to tariffs. So are shortages due to tariffs and trade wars. These factors advance negative perceptions of what’s to come. Paul Krugman refers to this as vibecessions. These are vibes that a recession is coming, that the economy is not really doing well.

Well, for one, there’s been some surprise in the tariffs. The effective rate has turned out to be much lower than the declared rates. Part of this is because most economists expect Trump’s tariffs to be declared illegal and withdrawn. They suspect companies are eating much of the tariff costs for the short term so they won’t lose customers. This makes sense, if they expect the tariffs to be short-lived. It also makes sense if you compare the cost of finding and luring new customers to your business compared to the cost of keeping them. Getting new customers is much harder and more expensive. Loyalty, once broached, is very expensive. Then, when the tariffs are withdrawn, companies can, as necessary raise prices under other pretenses.

As for employment and unemployment, economists suggest this is because of uncertainty with the economy. Part of this is due not just to reporting confusion (more on that below), but because of the economic activity being generated by cryptocurrencies and AI developments. Both are areas where vast investments are being made. Both are relatively new. Their actual impact on the economy is uncertain.

This is especially true with AI. Artificial Intelligence. It’s here, but meaningful impact from using artificial intelligence in business to increase productivity and profits is slow to emerge. Meanwhile, huge centers are being built to support AI. These are expensive centers. Their need for electricity will drive up energy costs if they’re not countered by the construction of new energy sources. The Trump Regime’s deliberate decisions to cut funds to build solar and wind farms to generate more electricity puts the nation way behind planning and building new power sources.

Additionally, with so many huge AI centers being built, there will be some which don’t successfully compete and then fail. Think back if you can to when personal computers came onto the scene. So many businesses sprang up to build computers to fill this new need. Likewise, look at the airline industry when commercial airline travel was growing, and how many airlines sprang up and then either got bought up or shut down and faded away. Same with automobile manufacturing. Video renting. Streaming services. Malls. Craft beers and micro breweries. Each advance is littered with the remains of failures.

Plus, there is some fallout that’s going to grow because of provisions in the Big Beautiful Bill. What it will do to healthcare costs aren’t clear. Premiums for many seem to be climbing. How this load on their spending patterns hasn’t been clearly demonstrated. Likewise, cuts to SNAP, school systems, college enrollment, are still to be expected. As Federal funds don’t make it to the state level, state funding doesn’t reach local levels, affecting the economy at multiple levels. Then, too, there is the declining tourism, especially from foreign locations. It’s affecting state economies who depend on tourism, but how deeply will they be affected is the looming question.

Additionally, I think many consumers might be like my wife and me. In my house, we made many purchases with the expectations that the economic crap is going to encounter the economic fan, so buy now, while prices aren’t too bad, while the stuff is available, while we can. Basically, it’s spend more now because we can’t buy later. We deliberately stockpiled things we regularly use, like coffee and canned and processed foods from other countries. We do replenish as we can now, using the same rational.

Beyond those things, we know that Trump is a liar. We’ve also noticed that those surrogates in Trump’s Regime who speak out in public are liars. Not just liars but do everything possible to prop Trump and all things Trump up and light it up in the best possible light. As Trump via DOGE slashed through the government, he broke many things. Among them is the reporting mechanism for several economic indicators. He flat removed people who gave truthful numbers, such as the BLS. That burned him, so he burned them. That’s just the things that came out in public. What’s going on behind in the dark can only be guessed out.

That leaves us confused. Can we trust Trump and the numbers his administration releases? Fuck no. Only fools and sycophants believe those numbers. With that uncertainty, businesses struggle to make any long-term plans, because reality might catch up any day now.

Trump thinks he can keep up his numbers game and lies. We know that’s not true; we see prices rising, causing the affordability issues we’re now facing.

We also have Trump’s personal history. That history shows that Trump’s lies are always exposed. He lied about his accomplishments, his wealth, his businesses, and his prospects. Each time, those were exposed. He was taken to court. Convicted. Filed for bankruptcies to escape his mistakes. Cheated on taxes. Stole money from charities he or his family set up. Used word games and sleight of hand and secrecy to build himself up. But it all catches up to him. Right now, we’re waiting to see what the Epstein files show who he and what he’s done. Trump has been fighting like hell to keep that from happening.

So that’s the thing, for me. Beyond the numbers, there is a simple truth: Trump is a failure who lives behind a curtain of deception. But that curtain keeps getting torn open. When it does this time, it’s going to be a freaking mess.