Ashland, southern Oregon — Friday, May 1, 2026.

It’s 57 F outside and a high of 77 is predicted, despite clouds and haze obscuring the sun.

Good-bye April, hello May. As it’s May 1st, I’m staying home and not buying anything today.

The fifth month of 2026 begins with little change politically.

• Trump remains in office
• Prices are still rising, with gas in the US setting records for how fast they’re rising
• Kash Patel is still running the FBI but that’s not expected to last
• The Epstein files haven’t been released
• Trump’s approval ratings are falling and his disapproval is climbing

May begins as the third month with the US Schrödinger’s War with Iran where we’re at war and not at war. Common sense says we attacked them, bombed them, killed people, all in pursuit of Trump’s fragile objectives — ego, approval, masculinity. Iran has fought back and we have warships stationed over there. Ergo, it’s war.

Legal semantics are being employed to argue the US is not at war because, law. “Operation Epic LOOK — SQUIRREL” began on February 28, 2026. Trump formally notified Congress on March 2. Today is then the legal deadline to either stop the war or get a formal Authorization for Use of Military Force. All eyes still wearily blink at Congress to see who among them have grown a spine.

Republicans argue that sudden withdrawal would embolden Iran. I think Trump’s failed bombing campaign is already doing that.

Newsweek offered some classic clickbait:

Donald Trump’s odds of winning 2026 Nobel Peace Prize surge

The article says they gave him a 55% chance of winning last year, and now give him a 25% chance. Sounds like Trump math. He’s still in sixth place or lower as a potential winner. In my mind, if they gave the prize to Trump after all his bombing and threats, the prize would lose all credibility.

Trump has seemed very low key, low energy recently. It’s like he checked out. Never one to be on top of things, he’s always been bombastically out there, pretending like he is. I wonder, though, if it’s not a culmination of his war against the press merging with the press’s weariness over his lies and attacks resulting in less reporting of him. Could be, too, that he’s simply retreating into trusted safe places.

Whatever the cause, the optics of his absence as ‘commander in chief’ promote the impression that he’s overwhelmed and flailing. Stacked on top of ‘the bulge’ in his pants, his weary appearance, and fewer, more muted appearances, I’m getting a lame duck vibe.

I’m looking forward to his May 17th Rededicate 250 speech. At this point, anything he says and claims about Making America Great Again is going to remind us about how much worse the nation is now compared to two years ago.

Your Trump Quote of the Day:

I have “Sweet Surrender” by Sarah McLachlan in my morning mental music stream. This actually came about when my ginger fur friend, Papi, did a roll at my feet on the patio as we tested the weather together. I chortled and gave him some skritches and rewarded him with extra treats. His move seemed like he was doing a sweet surrender, but so did my response.

I hope this day goes well for you, with good friends, good food and drink, and good news.

Cheers