My decision to decide later crumpled against a more urgent decision to get up and eat, which led me to a pause in front of the bathroom mirror where I decided, not today, and maybe not tomorrow.
All These Things: Trump in decline
The way Trump has been carrying himself is creating speculation about his mind and health.
Much of this is caused by broken promises (like no new war) and things not going his way:
- Job growth is poor
- The national debt is growing fast
- Oil, gas, and associated costs and prices are rising
- His Iran war is not near an end and seems to be getting worse
- Epstein’s ghost and his files, linking Trump to Epstein’s crimes, are still out there
- Trump’s approval ratings drop more each week
Operation Epic LOOK — SQUIRREL! did not distract people the way it used to. Trump has almost emptied his quiver. He can’t retract or retreat; that’s against his brand and would lose him his base.
All that remains is that he fire people in his administration to blame them for his failures. People are wondering now, who is next to fall under Trump’s blade? Patel, Hegseth, Kennedy?
It could be a bloody week.
More columns are talking about how badly things are going for Trump.
This Is Not a Man in Control of Himself
Jaimelle Bouie noted:
“The president is struggling with the consequences of his actions, raging in protest of the fact that for all its firepower, the United States cannot bomb Iran into submission. When Trump launched his “short-term excursion,” he assumed that it would be — in the words of a Pentagon official in the last Republican administration to launch a Middle East war — a “cakewalk.”
“That, as Trump’s own intelligence agencies told him, was a mistake. Now, he is stuck. And he lacks the skill and patience to find a way out of his self-inflicted catastrophe. Unable to will a better outcome into existence — there are limits to the power of positive thinking — and frustrated by his own impotence, his response, familiar to anyone who must manage the emotions of a young child, is to throw a tantrum.
“Over the last few days, Trump has denounced “the Fake News Media” as “CRAZY, or just plain CORRUPT!” for its reporting on the war. He attacked Pope Leo XIV in a bizarre rant, calling him “WEAK on Crime” and “terrible for Foreign Policy.” And he posted an A.I. image of himself as Jesus, surrounded by devotees, healing an unnamed man.”
Donald Distracted
Andrew Egger observed:
“Well, here we are again: The ceasefire in Iran is once again in a state of near-total collapse. The U.S. military hasn’t yet resumed its bombing campaign of the Iranian mainland, but the danger in the Strait of Hormuz is as bad as ever.
“After claiming Friday that the strait was now open and letting a trickle of ships through, Iran abruptly reversed course Saturday, firing on at least two merchant vessels and insisting the strait would remain closed as long as America maintained its military blockade of Iran’s ports. Then, yesterday, U.S. forces fired on and seized an Iranian cargo ship that they said had tried to run their blockade—causing Iran to announce it was pulling out of the second round of Islamabad peace talks, which were scheduled to begin today. Oil prices, which on Friday had fallen by more than $10 a barrel on Iran’s claims of an open strait, rocketed back upward, now hovering back around $100.
“In one sense, we’re right back where we were last month—the strait closed, Iran intransigent, Donald Trump threatening. But that undersells the damage. A cancer patient who goes under the knife and wakes to discover they couldn’t remove the tumor isn’t likely to be comforted that at least the doctors stitched him up properly. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming a global economic catastrophe, and it’s clear Trump is running out of options to compel Iran to stop throttling it.”
Inside the reckoning Trump didn’t see coming | Opinion
Robert Reich pointed out:
“It’s not just that Dems are winning special elections by wide margins (and even where they’re not, they’re “overperforming” in ruby-red areas by an average of 16 points).
“Nor just that Hungary’s Viktor Orbán was overwhelmingly defeated after 16 years of authoritarian rule, with almost 80 percent of eligible voters turning out. (The victor, Peter Magyar, overcame Orbán’s rigged system by focusing on Orbán’s corruption and linking it to the economic difficulties facing average Hungarians.)
“Or that Trump posted an image of himself as Jesus, revealing his God complex and causing even evangelical Christians in his MAGA base to question his religiosity and mental stability.
“Or that Trump and Vance were dumb enough to pick a fight with Pope Leo, who has used it to explain his (and, for Catholics, Jesus’s) objections to war and to tyrants everywhere.
“Or that Trump’s major ally in Europe (and the only European leader to attend his inauguration), Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Malone, described Trump’s attack on the pope as “unacceptable” (Trump responded by attacking her for “lacking courage” in refusing to join his war on Iran).
“Or that Trump threatened to wipe out Iranian civilization — prompting even Tucker Carlson to call Trump’s threat “vile on every level,” Candace Owens to demand that the 25th Amendment be invoked to remove him from office, conspiracist Alex Jones to accuse Trump of threatening “genocide,” and Megyn Kelly to concede that Trump’s coalition is “completely fractured and in smithereens.”
“Or that Trump’s war has been such an abominable failure that it’s demonstrated his dangerous ignorance and diminishing mental capacity.
“It’s all these, together.”
Yes, it’s all these things.
It’s also that Trump doesn’t know what to do. He’s run out of gimmicks and is losing support. He needs a win to bolster his fragile ego and his support.
Oddsmakers are betting that there’s a 63% chance that Trump will escalate the war in Iran.
Given his past, who would bet against that?
The Short Game
“What do you want for dinner?” I asked.
My wife whipped her head around and glared at me. “I am going to kill you. Every day you come in here and ask that. Did you look to see what we have?”
“How ’bout we order Chinese food?”
Her eyes widened. “What about your sodium?”
I shrugged. “I’m not worried. My wife is going to kill me. I’m playing the short game.”
Thursday’s Theme Music – Too Much
Ashland, Oregon — Thursday, April 16, 2026.
It’s fifty shades of spring green outside. How quickly the front yard tree went from being bare to full of green leaves. I was out there working on the yard the other day and noted how bare it was and wondered when its leaves would arrive. Then the leaves were full and green on it, as though they’d been delivered via Amazon. “Your leaves are on the way and will be delivered by 3:30 PM on Wednesday.”
It’s 46 now, up from 32 F, and expected to climb to 52 F. Thunderstorms are expected tomorrow.
In fifty shades of Trump, Republicans in Congress are sticking with their leader, refusing to hold him accountable for the war in Iran. Some have compared it to Operation Poseidon Archer under President Biden. It’s messy, but there was a difference in scope, costs, and intentions. Although President Biden’s operation lasted fifteen months, his administration notified Congress before military operations were ordered and carried out. Not so with Trump, who has been operating more unilaterally, limiting how much Congress is told, and sometimes not telling them until after the fact. President Biden’s operation was also well-defined in objectives and stayed in scope. Trump’s Iran war has been much broader and general, with no clear cut stated goals. While various reasons have been stated, Trump has also threatened to destroy Iran as a nation and attack civilian targets.
- Operation Poseidon Archer cost about $400 million a day, with a total of $5 billion dollars for the first year of operations. Trump’s Iran war has spent $1 billion dollars per day on average, with an estimated expense of 35 to 51 billion dollar so far. Some experts believe that Trump’s Iran war could exceed one trillion dollars.
- President Biden’s Yemen strikes had a relatively contained economic effect. Trump’s Iran war has caused gas prices to soar to $7 in some states while disrupting global air travel due to airspace closures.
- Trump’s war has also affected the price of fertilizer for US farmers. The Strait of Hormuz closure has restricted access to components like sulfur, which is required to manufacture phosphate fertilizers in U.S. plants. Many small farmers are facing fertilizer costs which are 30 to 40 % higher than planned. The scale of the impact on increased cost for food and consumer goods will depend on how long Trump’s Iran war lasts.
- Total deaths for President Biden’s Yemen operations were estimated at 106 to 337 lives. Trump’s Iran war has claimed an estimated five to ten thousand, so far. No US military members were killed in the Yemen operation, while Trump’s war cost fifteen US military members to date.
It all added up to too much. That was enough for Les Neurons to invite the Dave Matthews Band into the morning mental music stream with “Too Much” from 1996.
I eat too much
I drink too much
I want too much
Too much
Hey
Suck it up, suck it up
Suck it up, suck it up, suck it up, yeah
Suck it up, suck it up, suck it up
Suck it up, suck it up, suck it up baby
h/t to AZLyrics.com
Hope your day isn’t too much for you, and that all goes well.
Cheers
Wednesday’s Theme Music – History
Ashland, Oregon — April 15, 2025.
A gray dawn in Ashland. Rain is expected throughout the day as clouds gather and temperatures drift from the low forties to the low fifties. Temperatures are expected to drop into the low thirties tomorrow morning. A frost warning is in effect.
Reason.com reminded us of Trump and the emptiness of his declarations and claims. This one was about the national debt. Ten years ago, Trump said he would eliminate the national debt. Oh, the cheers he got for that.
They asked him, how long would it take? “Fairly quickly,” Trump replied. When pressed for a more specific answer, Trump provided a shocking timeline. “Well, I would say over a period of eight years.”
Analysis showed that Trump was blowing wind. His plans to eliminate the national debt was diametrically opposed to his plans to lower taxes. Lower taxes won.
The national debt was 19 trillion dollars ten years ago. It’s now 39 trillion dollars. President Biden added to it, but Trump has done most of the damage.
Put this in their with the other claims he’s made. That’s he’s the peace president. A unifier. That he was going to replace Obamacare with a much better plan. That Mexico would pay for the wall. That he would lower prices from day one. That he would drain the swamp, eliminate fraud, waste, and abuse.
That he would release the Epstein files on day one.
Sickening how much he has lied and done to destroy the nation. More sickeningly, so many Republicans still cheer him on.
Also in the news, SOUTHCOM reported that they’d destroyed another boat and killed four more people.
It was the fourth attack in four days. No war; no court; no evidence. No judge, jury, ruling. Just Trump ordering the US military to kill untried civilians.
Today’s song comes from 1986. The Neurons had nothing to do with it. I read the news and remembered “Bullet the Blue Sky” by U2. Inspired by what Bono witnessed the US military doing in El Salvador and Nicaragua under Reagan. Much like now, when Trump is using military force in the name of Christianity, morality, democracy, and freedom to kill others. Sadly, this is an American tradition. Trump is just being overt, boastful, and brazen about it.
It’s demoralizing and depressing, but angers me as well, watching Trump tear down our norms and violate the laws, throw his name on everything, build monuments to himself. Meanwhile, measles outbreaks are on the rise, food and gas prices are climbing, and Trump is killing and destroying in our name. Our national debt grows but worse is what he’s done to our reputation and morals.
I hope your Wednesday is filled with peace and grace, and that we can garner the voice and political will to move us toward a better future, like the future we were once moving toward.
Cheers
The Trump Descent
After bluffing and bullshitting and actively weaving chaos and doubt, Trump’s act has worn thin.
Evidence that the United States is no longer respected and feared is showing up everywhere. Most pointedly, we see it as Iran refuses to give in while our nation’s traditional allies turn down Trump’s requests for help. Instead, they’re forming new alliances and agreements, leaving the US in the cold.
MAGA has responded to Trump’s losses and failures with predictable childishness, “Your rules.” Obstinate to a fault, they just do not learn. As the world moves on from its dalliance with right-wing theater, they’re going to be left behind. Which, if you recall, is why some of them turned to Trump in the first place. They will continue to pursue their FAFO course.
The International Monetary Fund issued warnings that the United States under Trump could drag down the global economy. It’s the war. Mostly. Trump’s Iran War is supercharging the oil and gas prices and disrupting supply lines. That means modestly less growth, but as the war continues, the chances for a global recession increase.
Symptomatic of Trump’s wide-ranging, negative impact are World Cup tourism forecasts. This should have been a boon for the United States and the eleven US cities hosting World Cup events but — Trump.
The United States is already coping with reduced tourism. Rising prices, triggered by Trump’s Iran War, broken trade agreements, and Trump’s tariffs are one big reason. However, experts are pointing to Trump’s hostile immigration policies. Even when people are authorized to enter the United States, they’re sometimes being turned back. Some of the reasons cited is that they criticized Trump. Not taking chances, people are talking with their cash and staying away from the United States.
Trump has bankrupted six businesses. His corruption is becoming as legendary as his lying.
Yet, there are those who still follow him, even as he takes us down, down, down.
Friday’s Theme Music – Tariffs & Travel
Ashland, Oregon — Friday, April 3, 20226.
33 F when I got up but sunshine was clearing the mountains and trees, lighting up cloudless blue sky. Today’s high will be 71.
With no news from home about Mom, I turned to the net for updates on the world. The US economy added 178k jobs in March. It surprised economists, and it surprised me. Economists warned that the war in Iran could cause problems, because it’s driving up costs throughout the supply chain.
Higher gas prices in the US will also mean less discretionary funding, which could be especially troubling as the US heads into May and the first of the big US travel holidays. Air travel could be harder as airlines such as United cut back flights to deal with increased fuel costs.
The economic is taking another hit from a sharp rise in fertilizer prices, affecting farmers which were already struggling with tariffs, broken trade agreements, and weather issues. Those challenges could result in lower yields and higher food prices at the store.
Not satisfied with high gas, diesel, and oil prices, Donald Trump declared tariffs on prescriptions drugs. Not immediately effective, they come with an opportunity for companies to agree to build facilities in the US to avoid the tariffs.
Today’s song comes from Papi and I stepping out onto the back patio. The gingerboy was already out there, grooming and sunning. His satisfied demeanor invited me to join him. I was still thinking about my dreams at that point. As I lifted my face up to the sun, the opening lyrics of “Kashmir” entered the morning mental music stream: “Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face.”
Here’s to you and a hope that peace and grace find and carries you, today and every day.
Cheers
Michael Seidel, writer 