Waiting On Trump
We’re almost halfway through March of 2026 and have seen the United States attack another nation, embrace more tariffs, and see more rising prices.
After a breakneck pace, fallout is arriving. Under Trump, led by Noem at Homeland Security, ICE created recurring headlines around confrontations, court cases, and death. Now Noem is out.
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the administration could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs. National refunds were ordered.
It’s a $170 billion dollar refund question, and Customs and Border Protection initially said, they can’t do it — yet.
The agency estimates that there have been roughly 53 million entries subject to IEEPA tariffs as of March 4, accounting for roughly $166 billion in deposits. The agency further said because CBP personnel must validate all refund requests, it would take over 4 million labor hours to complete returns for all IEEPA tariffs.
Trump hastily swung to other rationales for the tariffs, invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a new 10% tariff on imports from all countries. He later threatened to raise that to 15%.
Twenty-four states sued, arguing Section 122 requires tariffs to be applied nondiscriminatory and uniformly, contrary to Trump’s announcement. Some critics argue Section 122 has never been used for broad tariffs because it was meant for narrow, temporary financial emergencies that no longer exist.
We’re waiting to see what happens next.
More critically, we’re waiting to see what will happen next in the Trump Iran War. Israel is moving aggressively with the U.S. alongside them as a military power but costs are stacking. The war is expensive in terms of human life and financial costs. Most importantly to Trump, he’s probably realizing he’s a FAFO fool for attacking Iran, destabilizing the region, and upending the global economy.
Patterns and reminders are fast emerging that this is economy depends on shipping and cooperation. Trump was warned that before, when he broke trade agreements, arbitrarily imposed-rescinded-imposed-changed tariffs, and when he attacked allies and let the U.S. walk away from defense agreements.
Oil and gas prices swiftly went up. As oil storage tanks filled, production facilities shut down, because the shipping lanes have been impacted.
The results of all those are hurtling toward us in big ways. While ‘inflation’ is stable, that doesn’t include volatile things like food and energy prices. Food and energy are where American consumers are most affected.
More people are becoming aware that Trump promised no new wars. Now words like draft and phrases like ‘boots on the ground’ are rising in use. Polls show voters don’t like the air and naval war already in progress. They’ll like it less if large ground forces are sent into Iran.
When will it end?
We don’t know.
Neither does Trump, apparently. He has said, “We won.”
Trump also said — on the same day — it’s “ending soon.”
He also said that it’ll end whenever he says it ends.
Joe Rogan, a Trump supporter, seems like a bellwether. He’s called the Iran war, “nuts.” In comments made in an interview, Rogan pointed out that Trump is breaking his campaign promises.
“I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right? He ran on ‘no more wars,’ ‘end these stupid, senseless wars,’ and then we have one that we can’t even really clearly define why we did it.”
Many Trump voters had already awakened to Trump’s broken promises about lowering food prices on Day One.
They’ve noticed, too, that Trump didn’t end the Ukraine War on Day One. He later claimed he was being “sarcastic”.
That response is part of Trump’s regular responses whenever something is pointed out that’s factually wrong. For example, during the early part of the Trump Iran War, a school in Iran was bombed, resulting in 165 and 175 people killed, mostly children.
Trump suggested it was Iran’s fault.
“In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran…We think it was done by Iran, because they’re very inaccurate with their munitions, they have no accuracy whatsoever, it was done by Iran.”
When pressed by a reporter if Mr. Trump’s assessment was accurate, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth responded that the Pentagon was “investigating,” adding that “the only side that targets civilians is Iran.”
Investigations show a U.S. Tomahawk missile hit the school.
Trump responded, “I don’t know about that.”
The impact of Trump’s whimsical, chaotic approach is slowly adding up. I’m just waiting for the tipping point.
It can’t come too soon for me.
Thursday’s Theme Music
Ashland, Oregon — Thursday, March 5, 2026.
We’re winding through winter’s last days toward spring in Ashland. History provides us reminders that Ashland often experiences late winter to mid-spring snowstorms. I’d like more snow in the area, especially in the Cascades where our snowbank resides.
Today, it’s overcast with uncertain, flexing sunshine. 48 F, it feels neither warm nor cold, and our high is arcing toward just 50.
My phone has developed problems with receiving text messages all of a sudden. I’ve added fixing that to my todo list. I did get some updates from my siblings about Mom before the system went tango unform on me.
Mom is reverting to the behavior displayed in January. I drift toward remembering who she was and the complex relationships my sisters and I have with her. I contrast what’s she’s enduring with who she was, what and who she was trying to be, and where she arrived as a person. Much of it now is beyond her control. Doesn’t stop my sisters from getting angry about it. But we saw this pattern emerging. There was little we could do, which we learned with time, because we tried to do things to change the course.
I smile at some things, like her potato salad. My wife insists nobody makes potato salad like Mom. My wife tried but when she asked for a recipe, Mom was more about the ingredients and less about the measurements. One thing I learned from helping her make it sometimes was that Mom depended on tasting it and how it looked — color, texture. That’s hard to translate through recipes.
I was just settling into checking on prices, the war that Republicans don’t want to call a war, and other matters when breaking news arrived.
Trump replaces Noem at DHS, taps Mullin for job
I think at first, “about time”. Her arrogance and attitude doesn’t fit with what I look for in public servants. I temper that, though, with the understanding that she was carrying out Trump and Miller’s policies, and generally working as a functionary for Project 2025. It’ll be interesting to see how much this change will actually manifest as change.
On the heels of that thinking, I scoff, but of course Trump has replaced Noem. She’s become a lightning rod for negative impressions about Trump. With his popularity falling, he made her his scapegoat.
Today’s music is “Wild Horses” by the Rolling Stones. When The Neurons first settled it into my morning mental music stream, I sang it as “Wild Kitties” for Papi’s entertainment. He did not seem entertained.
I’m not sure why the song is playing in me. I can see how its themes and melody is about yearning for another time, for a different outcome, even for hope. I suppose that’s where I reside now — wishing for other things than what now exists. It also came out in 1971, when I was fifteen, so I suppose remembering the song stirs some nostalgia for being back there — young, with Mom, facing a bright future.
I’ll close with best wishes for you and us to stay safe, be healthy and find new ways toward a peaceful, prosperous, and inclusive future.
Cheers
At the Store
I was going through the frozen food section, toying with the idea of buying ice cream. This was definitely an impulse thing. Although several interesting flavors called me, I wasn’t sure I was going to buy any.
A couple shopping behind me had some frozen object in hand. He said, “This says it’s three and a half servings.”
“Three and a half!” The woman laughed. “No way. I’ll just eat that myself.”
She tossed the item into their cart and they moved on.
I smiled. We’ve all been there.
Lessons Learned
“They said: “He will start a war.” I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.”
Donald Trump has chosen to bomb Iran in a joint operation with Israel. In Trump’s view, Iran forced the decision on themselves.
This was after he campaigned and promised no more wars.
Voters said they supported Trump because he tells it like it is.
Like that time while campaigning in 2016 when Trump claimed he was against Gulf War II. Trump said, “I’m the only one on this stage that said: ‘Do not go into Iraq. Do not attack Iraq.’ Nobody else on this stage said that. And I said it loud and strong.”
Facts don’t support Trump’s assertion. No evidence exists that he was against that war until 2004. Trump never let facts deter him.
Same with his supporters. So many of them are applauding this war. Yet, they add, the main reason they voted for Trump was the economy. They wanted lower prices. Trump promised them he would lower prices on day one.
But follow this cause-and-effect logic. The war will cause prices to increase. Within hours of the Iran War’s beginning, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped. Oil prices went up.
When oil prices rise, so do manufacturing and shipping costs, consumer goods, and food prices.
Trump and his backers think the bombing of Iran will make the world safer, just as they said when Bush invaded Iraq and Afghanistan — the war which Trump said he was against.
Many, including Pete Hegseth, Trump’s Secretary of Defense, are saying that this war is not like the war in Iraq or Afghanistan. They think it will last weeks, not years.
Sure. That’s exactly what the Bush administration said in 2002.
Rumsfeld: It Would Be A Short War
We’ve learned so much since then.
Haven’t we?
A Car Dream
My wife and I were our current age and traveling in her 2003 Gray Focus. I was driving.
We stopped somewhere to eat. It looked like a good choice but after we began looking around more, it turned out to be a mess. Tables were set up as if they were in a fine dining room but it was outdoors, on uneven fields of uncut grass. Many other people were just like us, trying to figure out WTH was going on.
My wife was very hungry and said, “Screw this, I’m just getting some food.” Then she stalked through the grass, where the food was in silver serving bowls among the clumps of grass. Finding some food, she took it to a table.
I was trying to tell her, “Wait, I don’t think that’s what we’re supposed to do.”
A harried young male waiter hustled to her, asking for her order. She replied, “I’m eating this.”
The waiter turned to me and asked, “What are you ordering?”
I was bewildered. “I don’t know what’s available. Where’s the menu?”
But as I looked around, I saw another family doing as my wife did. Noticing scrambled eggs in a bowl on the ground and a red plate, I picked them up and said, “I’m having this.”
The waiter looked both dejected and smug. Writing something on a pad, he left.
Eating some of our food but not happen with it, my wife and I returned to her car. It was cold outside by then, so I started the car to warm us up. I noticed ice inside the car and told her, “Look how cold it got.” Then I opened windows to let the ice out and continued running the engine to warm the car and clear the windows.
The dream ended on a view of us in her little gray car, waiting for the windows to clear.
Sunday’s Theme Music
Ashland, Oregon — Sunday, March 1, 2026. It’s raining and foggy in Ashland, with temperatures tottering around 50 degrees F. Not a shred of sunshine out there, and a high of 57 is expected. Spring is muscling in.
It’s a day of questioning for me, starting with what’s going on with Mom to what’s going on in the world and the nation.
I learned yesterday that another sister — our youngest — had been going to visit Mom, taking her things, etc. The youngest has been designated as our contact with Mom because she has the best relationship of everyone living nearby. I reached out to her to see how Mom was doing.
The youngest related that when she arrived, Mom was playing bingo with five or six others at a table and apparently laughing and having fun. Mom told the youngest that she’d gone to church, which she enjoyed, and seemed pretty content and happy.
After wheeling Mom back to Mom’s room, the youngest found clothes all over Mom’s area. Mom complained she didn’t have hangers. Sis pointed out that they’re in the closet, and told her, you need to look, and helped Mom tidy.
Then, though, today, Mom asked the youngest to bring her cookies — “Anything but chocolate chip.” Oatmeal raisin cookies were brought, which made Mom mad. She then gave my sister ‘mean faces’ and quit speaking with her. The youngest rolled Mom to the dining room so she could eat, and then left.
The youngest sister also related that Mom’s roomie is 95 years old with congestive heart failure and two ‘bad shoulders’. She had a hospice aid visiting. My sister suggested that maybe we should get Mom a hospice aid. That took me back, because there’s nothing indicated to me at this point that Mom is ready for hospice.
It’s just as troubling and confusing elsewhere in the world. Trump ordered the U.S. to attack Iran, a joint operation with Israel, “Operation Epic Fury”. While Iran’s supreme leader was killed, Iran retaliated. Americans were killed and injured. More critically, is this the opening that will explode the area into another war? Trump and his advisors seem to think in terms of gunship diplomacy and regime change.
Trump — the peace president, a self-made assertion that has Orwell laughing in his grave — said that the attack was to protect Americans. “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” Trump said in prerecorded remarks posted on White House social media accounts early Saturday morning.”
Back in 2011, Trump said President Obama would start a war with Iran. “Our president will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate. He’s weak and he’s ineffective.”
Who is weak and ineffective now, Trump?
Protests in Baghdad broke out, with “Death to Israel, death to America,” being shouted. This smacks of the 1970s and 1980s, so it sickens me that we seem to be going into another war spiral. I hope to hell that’s not true.
As I sat with that information, news arrived of a mass shooting in Austin, Texas. Next came updated information about deaths in Iran where 85 are reported killed: “The majority of the dead are schoolgirls aged between seven and 12 years old, according to the regime-controlled news outlets Tasnim and Fars.”
Senseless killing, once again. I expect anger and hatred in Iran to rise in response. This is exactly where we were before, using violence and killing to win hearts and minds. It did not work then; I don’t expect it to work now.
BTW, remember when Trump vowed no more wars when he campaigned? Guess that promise meant as much as Mexico paying for the wall and lower food and energy prices.
The song in my morning mental music stream came when I first looked out the windows, before reading any news. “Rainy Night in Georgia” came out in 1970. The Neurons put it in there when I thought, “Another rainy day in Ashland.” I didn’t remember who performed the song and looked it up to learn it was Brook Benton.
I call again for peace and grace to find its way to us, and maybe it will someday. Right now, it feels less likely than it did last week. But things will change. It’s really just question of how and why.
Cheers
Lies, Plots, and Obfuscation: Another Year of Trump
The Trump trajectory is pretty much what many of us anticipated, based on his first administration and what he’s often said.
Aggressively going after immigrants, which Trump and his administration always call ‘illegals’ and categorize as criminals, he has swept up U.S. citizens and children. Right now, a 9-year-old child in a detention center wishes she was dead. She’s been locked up for eight months. That’s Trump’s soulless, uncaring nation for you, Evangelicals and all.
Under Trump, ICE killed eight people in 2025-2026.
Affordability remains a huge problem. While promising tax breaks, Trump has done little to address increasing the housing supply, which is the basis for the high housing costs. It’s simple supply and demand.
Not for Trump. Trump instead blames ‘illegals’ for high housing prices. Experts counter with a much more nuanced responses which don’t mention immigrants, no matter what their legal status is. His policies miss the mark because his policies have nothing to do with the issue.
Trump tariffs did not lead to the lower prices he promised for Day One. He did claim credit for doing it:
“Grocery prices, energy prices, airfares, mortgage rates, rent and car payments are all coming down, and they’re coming down fast,” Trump said in a wide-ranging speech, adding: “We’ve done a hell of a job in 12 months.”
As usual, Trump failed, then lied. Egg prices have dropped but chicken, beef, and coffee prices are up, along with housing, cars, beer, and insurance premiums. We the People know if, if you’re not a MAGA. We feel it.
Trump’s trademark lying continues, aided now by White House officials. One is Johnny MAGA. Johnny MAGA appears to be Wade Garrett, who works in the Trump Administration. When ICE agent Jonathon Ross killed Renee Nicole Good in Minnesota earlier this year, Johnny MAGA rushed fake news out showing the U.S. flag burning, pushing a fake narrative to justify Good’s murder.
We anticipated that Trump would gut the Department of Justice and use it to persecute political opponents. That’s exactly what he’s been doing, going after people who were responsible for investigating Trump and his crimes, including more FBI agents this week.
In 2024, Trump said, “Get out and vote! Just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore! Four more years, you know what? It’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine, you won’t have to vote anymore.”
Now many speculate that Trump is hatching a ‘national emergency’ to stop elections in 2028.
Given who Trump is and his history, there is every reason to worry about the future of our elections.
At Its Best
Sunlight streams in through the open blinds. Winter snow melts away as light clouds cruise through a blue field.
My wife sits up. “This would be a good day for our roasted veggie soup.”
The roasted vegetable soup is all about potatoes, carrots, broccoli, and garlic. After quartering, cubing, slicing, the veggies are rubbed with salt, pepper, olive oil, and turmeric roasted at 425 degrees. Rubbed with oil and housed in foil, the garlic is roasted with them.
When the vegetables are done roasting thirty-five minutes later, the garlic cloves are released and added to the vegetables. They all go into a big pot. Two quarts of mushroom broth is added. Boil, then simmer or thirty minutes.
As they boil, biscuits are rolled out and baked.
Such wonderful smells flavor the air. This is when our house is at its best as a home.
Michael Seidel, writer 